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ACUS11 KWNS 031201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031201
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-031400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0995
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0701 AM CDT Tue Jul 03 2018

Areas affected...southeast North Dakota...north-central and
northeast South Dakota...and western Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...

Valid 031201Z - 031400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
continues.

SUMMARY...Well-organized cluster of thunderstorms will continue to
move east through the morning. Strong, gusty winds will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized mesoscale convective system (MCS) with leading-edge bow is quickly moving across southern North Dakota.
Radar imagery over the last 1-2 hours indicated the development of a rear-inflow jet, which aided the threat for damaging winds. Latest
radar imagery suggests an overall weakening of the reflectivity
signature on the apex of the bow, with the highest reflectivity now concentrated along the southern (and trailing) edge of the box apex.
Despite the weakening reflectivity appearance, a damaging-wind
threat may continue along the leading edge of the bow for another
couple of hours.

The overall background environment remains unchanged from earlier
this morning. Deep-layer shear remains in excess of 40 knots and an
available reservoir of most-unstable CAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg
exists to the south of the track of the MCS. Given the expectation
that the low-level jet will continue to aid ascent along and ahead
of the MCS -- before it weakens and veers later this morning -- a
severe threat may continue farther east than Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #258 and either a local extension in time/space or a new watch
may become necessary later this morning.

..Marsh.. 07/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 47019990 47619663 47589511 46769396 45929487 45569734
45539944 45820024 47019990



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