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ACUS11 KWNS 030915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030915
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-031045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0994
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0415 AM CDT Tue Jul 03 2018

Areas affected...southern North Dakota and northern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...

Valid 030915Z - 031045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will continue across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 258. The primary threat through the overnight will be strong,
gusty winds with eastward moving storms moving across western North
Dakota and isolated severe hail with the storms farther east.

DISCUSSION...A small mesoscale convective system (MCS) with
leading-edge quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) continues to
quickly move east across southern North Dakota and extreme northern
South Dakota. Recent storm reports from Adams and Hettinger Counties
in North Dakota indicate this QLCS is still capable of producing
low-end severe thunderstorm winds, with measured 58 and 61 mph gusts respectively.

Along and ahead of this MCS, strong warm, moist advection on the
nose of a 35-45 knot low-level jet continues support
destabilization. The resultant isentropic ascent from the warm-air
advection is aiding parcels to reach their level of free convection
and tap into an elevated CAPE reservoir of up to 3000 J/kg. The
result has been a long-lived cluster of thunderstorms across
north-central and northeast South Dakota capable of producing
isolated severe hail.

Given the strength of the deep-layer shear (40-50 knots), continued
isentropic ascent, and an uninterrupted moist, unstable feed on the
nose of the low-level jet, the severe threat should persist through
the morning along and ahead of the western MCS.

..Marsh.. 07/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 45920405 46530407 46520379 46650379 46630359 46940359
46930369 47310367 47320308 47670307 47670265 47810264
47750238 47840239 47849927 47589925 47579848 47669846
47659691 47519685 47509606 47159607 47129622 46649614
46639630 45429625 45429615 45179612 45279647 44979644
44989691 44799690 44799750 44559750 44549784 44639788
44649871 44179872 44209931 44899929 44939958 45249959
45250031 45460032 45460200 45030200 45040296 45930294
45920405



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