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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0992

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 03, 2018 04:33:01
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 030432
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030432
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-030600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0992
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1132 PM CDT Mon Jul 02 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of northeastern SD...southeastern ND...and western/central MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256...

    Valid 030432Z - 030600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated large hail risk continues across
    eastern portions of WW 256 and into parts of western/central MN.
    Downstream watch issuance into more of MN appears unlikely at this
    time.

    DISCUSSION...04Z RAP mesoanalysis indicates a southwesterly 35-45 kt
    low-level jet is present across eastern SD and southern/central MN.
    Multiple bands of thunderstorms have formed across this area in the
    low-level warm air advection regime. The best instability and
    potential for surface-based convection is located across
    northeastern SD, where surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
    70s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting around
    1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE per RAP mesoanalysis estimates. A belt of
    strong mid-level westerlies will remain over the Dakotas and MN, and
    related effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will continue to organize thunderstorms. Large hail should remain the primary threat over the
    next several hours, with storms likely remaining elevated with
    eastward extent into MN due to more marginal instability. Current
    expectations are for the overall severe threat to remain too
    isolated/marginal to warrant a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    into more of MN, although convective trends will continue to be
    monitored.

    ..Gleason.. 07/03/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

    LAT...LON 44679797 44679918 44889914 45059847 45459729 46009706
    46539719 46649791 46799790 47419716 47509444 47449368
    44979495 44659684 44679797



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