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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0993

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 03, 2018 05:02:01
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 030501
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030501
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-030630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0993
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 03 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of southeastern MT...southwestern ND...and northwestern SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256...257...

    Valid 030501Z - 030630Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256, 257
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A few long-lived thunderstorm clusters should continue to
    pose a large hail and damaging wind threat as they move eastward. A
    small northward extension in area of WW 256 may be needed in western
    ND if current radar trends continue.

    DISCUSSION...The environment downstream of ongoing convection in
    southeastern MT will probably remain conducive of at least some
    severe hail/wind risk for the next couple of hours. Multiple
    measured severe wind gusts have been observed since 03Z with this
    activity, along with a few 1.00-1.75 inch hail reports. Strong
    effective bulk shear around 50-65 kt and and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
    will likely support continued supercell/short bowing segments.
    Current trajectory of these thunderstorms suggest a small northward
    extension of WW 256 in western ND may be needed (mainly for Golden
    Valley and Billings counties). A longer-lived severe threat with
    these thunderstorms into more of southern ND and northern SD remains
    unclear, but there is at least some potential for an extension of WW
    256 in time or a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch based on convective
    trends.

    ..Gleason.. 07/03/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 45310629 46310633 46840515 46980383 47020218 46720143
    45610144 45270202 45310629



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