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ACUS11 KWNS 270031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270030
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-270230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0898
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...Central/Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 270030Z - 270230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have formed along an east/west surface boundary
stretching across central/eastern Kansas into western Missouri.
Hail/strong wind gusts are the main threats, but brief tornadoes are
possible.

DISCUSSION...The atmosphere has destabilized across portions of
Kansas/Missouri during the last few hours in the wake of a MCS.
Moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg) and shear
(effective bulk shear of 35-55 knots) indicate a conducive
environment for strong/severe storm development. Farther to the
west, the storms are most likely surface-based and interacting with
a remnant outflow boundary, which is where brief tornadoes are
possible across Butler/Elk/Greenwood counties. Severe hail/wind are
also possible with these storms as they slowly build/track to the south/southeast. Storms should diminish after sunset. However, there
is a possibility of upscale organization that would let storms
continue through the evening. If this occurs, a watch may be needed.

..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 38539758 38619584 38559386 37449384 36819381 36829587
36919729 37109768 38179768 38539758



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