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ACUS11 KWNS 262347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262346
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-270045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0896
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Western North Dakota and Northwest
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225...

Valid 262346Z - 270045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms are continuing across the northern half of Watch
#225, and new storms are firing farther south in the watch. Severe
hail/wind are the main threats. Watch will continue for all
counties.

DISCUSSION...Storms should continue to develop along a surface
boundary oriented southwest to northeast (roughly along a line from
GCC to KD60) as convective temperatures are breached. Additionally,
per water-vapor imagery, an upper-level shortwave is providing
ascent aloft over the watch area. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/kg) and adequate effective bulk shear (30-45 knots)
should allow for strong/severe storm development to continue and
eventually build upscale into a QLCS. However, difluent flow aloft
over the region indicates the potential for one or more separate
QLCSs.

Steep low-level lapse rates and high DCAPE indicate severe wind
potential with these storms especially before sunset. Severe hail is
also possible as these storms develop in a moderate
buoyancy/adequate shear environment. Storms may continue later in
the evening, but will most likely diminish as the environment
farther to the east is characterized by weak buoyancy/shear.

..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 45230440 46570381 48140315 48890269 49060244 49080110
49050064 48830078 47930125 46600198 45230257 45230440



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