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ACUS11 KWNS 262223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262222
SCZ000-GAZ000-270015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Georgia and most of South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 262222Z - 270015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are developing along a cold front, surface trough,
and surging outflow. Storms should continue into the evening with
strong wind gusts as the main threat.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a squall line in Tennessee, storms are
developing along cold front draped across the North Carolina/South
Carolina border, a surface pressure trough in South
Carolina/Georgia, and an outflow boundary ahead of the storms
(roughly a line from EQY to AND). Marginal lapse rates aloft (~6
C/km), modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), and weak
flow/shear should lead to the continuation of the multicellular
cluster/QLCS evolution especially along/near surface boundaries.
Some steeper low-level lapse rates could increase chances for severe
wind, and hail is also possible. Storms should start to
weaken/diminish after sunset.

..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 32638130 32728255 32988323 33688357 34548366 34488323
34528230 34718140 34798064 34778025 34677968 34187936
33577943 32988013 32638130



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