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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0894

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 26, 2018 20:36:05
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262035
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-262200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0894
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

    Areas affected...Far eastern Montaha...Western North Dakota...and
    far northwest South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 262035Z - 262200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely in the next hour as
    strong to severe storms form.

    DISCUSSION...A cumulus field continues to fill in across western
    North Dakota and far eastern Montana as instability increases ahead
    of an ejecting mid-level speed max. Some agitated cu along the cold
    front indicate convective initiation is likely in the next hour or
    two. Ahead of the front, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s
    with dewpoints in the low 60s yielding MLCAPE values of 2000 J/kg.
    Current effective shear is 35 to 40 knots per latest RAP analysis
    however, deep layer shear will be increasing through the afternoon
    and evening as mid-level winds strengthen. Therefore, the
    environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail and
    damaging winds as the primary threat. A severe thunderstorm watch
    will likely be needed within the hour.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 06/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 49010222 49010176 49040119 48960099 48570068 47960074
    47380108 45610206 45230271 45140355 45240445 45350476
    45740483 46320489 47340376 49010222



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