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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0893

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 26, 2018 19:46:36
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 261946
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261946
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-262115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0893
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0246 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Northeast Oklahoma...Southwest
    and Central Missouri...and far Northwest Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220...222...223...

    Valid 261946Z - 262115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220, 222,
    223 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 222 and 223. The severe threat is coming to an end in Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 220 as storms move east of the watch area.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have now formed ahead of the cold front from
    central Missouri to northeast Oklahoma. The severe risk will
    increase through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening
    as these storms move into an extremely unstable airmass (4000 to
    5000 J/kg SBCAPE). The best deep layer shear (35 to 40 knots
    according to the latest RAP analysis) exists in central Missouri and
    in southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. Current radar trends
    support this as the deepest sustained updrafts (as observed by 9 km
    CAPPI) are where this deep-layer shear is stronger. While the entire
    line could become one large MCS, the highest confidence in stronger
    linear segments exists in northeast Oklahoma and along the outflow
    boundary in central Missouri where the better deep layer shear
    exists.

    ..Bentley.. 06/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

    LAT...LON 36929671 37149619 37479582 37849527 38089492 38499476
    38989401 39229337 39199291 38999243 38629217 38059199
    37569198 37009213 36619260 36169360 35859428 35789506
    35989595 36429660 36929671



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