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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0890

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 26, 2018 18:32:03
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261832
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261831
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-262000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0890
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0131 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

    Areas affected...Northwest Illinois...Eastern Iowa...and Southern
    Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 261831Z - 262000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado or two is possible this afternoon. The best
    tornado threat resides near the warm front in northern Illinois,
    southern Wisconsin, and far eastern Iowa.

    DISCUSSION...Moderate surface heating beneath the broken cirrus
    shield has led to moderate surface-based destabilization (1500 to
    2000 SBCAPE) in northern Illinois and eastern Iowa. Mid-level lapse
    rates are only marginally supportive for overall severe weather,
    however, low-level flow is backed near the warm front. While 1-km
    flow is currently relatively weak (~15 kts at KLOT and KMKX VWP),
    KDVN is currently showing 30 knots of southwesterly flow at 1-km. A
    few storms have shown some weak rotation early this afternoon, and a
    modest increase in the tornado threat is possible in the next hour
    or two as this stronger flow at 1 km overspreads the warm frontal
    zone and backed low-level flow. A tornado watch is not expected due
    to the marginal nature of the tornado threat, and the lack of a more
    widespread large hail and damaging straight-line wind threat.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 06/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

    LAT...LON 42359135 42629113 43119068 43169016 43098933 42628871
    42208844 41788839 41458877 41338936 41468999 41659053
    41759085 41889108 42069134 42359135



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