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ACUS11 KWNS 261757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261756
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-261900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0889
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...far southeast KS...northeast OK...northwest
AR...southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 261756Z - 261900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...It appears a transition from elevated to surface-based
thunderstorm development is occurring as of 1245 CDT. The risk for
severe gusts/large hail is rapidly increasing with the storm cluster
over far southern KS and it is projected to move into northeast OK
over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of thunderstorms over
south-central KS. Radar and satellite imagery both suggest a
convectively generated mid-level circulation with this activity.
MRMS 9-km CAPPI imagery shows an intense core developing over Cowley
County, KS as of 1245 CDT.

Recent 88D VAD data from KICT shows 35-45 kt west-northwesterly flow
at 4km AGL and extreme quantities of low-level moisture/buoyancy are
evident in surface observations (90 degree F temperature with upper
70s dewpoints per OK Mesonet) and 5800 J/kg SBCAPE per modified RAP
forecast soundings over northeast OK. The net result is an
environment becoming very favorable for severe gusts and large to
very large hail. Although some uncertainty remains regarding the
evolution with storms as this activity moves to the east-southeast
into northeast OK/southwest MO/Northwest AR vicinity, it appears a
severe thunderstorm watch will likely need to be considered over the
next hour.

..Smith/Thompson.. 06/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35679411 36289592 37169713 37329606 37289491 36889333
36109307 35839330 35679411



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