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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0887

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 26, 2018 17:17:05
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261717
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261716
    MOZ000-KSZ000-261815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0887
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

    Areas affected...far eastern KS...west-central and southwestern MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

    Valid 261716Z - 261815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely continue to develop and
    intensify. The risk for severe gusts/hail is increasing.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows thunderstorms developing near the
    I-70 corridor in eastern KS. If these storms are slightly elevated
    in character, it is anticipated a transition to surface based will
    ensue in the near term as these storms and other storms east of
    Wichita continue to develop east into eastern KS. Visible satellite
    imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field over eastern and southeastern
    KS into west-central and southwestern MO to the south of a cold
    front and to the west of rain-cooled outflow over central MO.
    Surface temperatures have warmed to near 90 degrees in southeast KS
    and into the lower 80s in the greater Kansas City metro. A very
    moisture rich airmass characterized by middle 70s dewpoints over
    eastern KS is contributing to extreme buoyancy and around 5500 J/kg
    SBCAPE per modified RAP soundings over southeast KS. KTWX and KEAX
    VAD data indicate 30-45 kt 2-6 km flow over the northern half of the
    discussion area and this would potentially support severe multicells
    and supercells given the extreme buoyancy in place. Large to very
    large hail and severe gusts (50-60 kt) are possible with the
    stronger storms this afternoon.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 39019516 38989363 38619325 37749295 36929349 37049460
    37209580 39019516



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