• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0885

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 26, 2018 13:02:05
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    ACUS11 KWNS 261301
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261301
    KSZ000-261500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0885
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0801 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

    Areas affected...central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 261301Z - 261500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolate late hail threat may transition to an isolated
    wind threat later this morning. The area will be monitored for a
    potential watch.

    DISCUSSION...This morning's 12Z DDC sounding shows mid-level lapse
    rate on the order of 7.5 C/km, with the maximum 2-6 km lapse rate on
    the nearing 9 C/km. This, coupled with warm-air advection in the
    850-700 millibar layer has contributed to elevated thunderstorms
    across western portions of central Kansas. The environment these
    thunderstorms are developing in has most-unstable CAPE values
    between 1000-2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 30-40
    knots. As such, these thunderstorms should be capable of posing a
    hail threat in the near-term.

    Later this morning, as insolation mixes out the nocturnal boundary
    layer, steepening low-level lapse rates should increase the
    potential for strong thunderstorm outflow. A watch may become
    necessary later this morning.

    ..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 37820011 38960024 39219936 38959678 37919633 37349719
    37820011



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