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ACUS11 KWNS 261239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261239
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-261445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0884
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...central and southern Missouri...southern
Illinois...and western Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261239Z - 261445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated marginally severe hail will continue to be
possible through the morning. The expected limited nature of the
threat should preclude the need for a watch in the near term.

DISCUSSION...Overnight theta-e advection on the nose of a 20-30 knot southwesterly low-level jet allowed the airmass across the region to
moisten and destabilize despite the lack of insolation. For example 850-millibar dewpoint temperatures at SGF warmed from 10.4C to 16.9C
and correspondingly most-unstable CAPE values rose from around 750
J/kg to 1150 J/kg.

This theta-e advection is expected to continue through the morning,
and potentially into the afternoon. As such, continued thunderstorm
development is likely through the morning across much of central and
southern Missouri. These thunderstorms, elevated in nature, will
move off to the east-northeast. Although mid-level lapse-rates
across the area are only on the order of 6-7 C/km, deep-layer shear
is on the order of 40 knots, which will allow for enough
thunderstorm organization -- at least on a transient basis -- to
allow the strongest thunderstorm updrafts to produce marginally
severe hail. This thinking appears to be supported by overnight and
current MESH trends showing isolated cores briefly flirting with and
topping the 1-inch threshold.

Given the isolated, sporadic nature of the near-term threat, a WW is
not currently anticipated in the short term, but trends will be
monitored.

Later this morning, as insolation increases across southern
Illinois, western Kentucky, and southern Indiana, enough
destabilization may occur to support a more robust severe threat and
a watch may be needed.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 38659470 39119395 39079066 40488686 38378696 36838821
37309317 38659470



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