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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0798

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 20, 2018 00:41:07
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 200041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200040
    OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-200245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0798
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0740 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

    Areas affected...the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and into portions
    of northwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 200040Z - 200245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms ongoing near the Oklahoma
    Panhandle/southwest Kansas border may spread gradually
    south-southeastward. WW could become necessary.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar loop shows a couple of
    intense/rotating storms near the southwest Kansas/Oklahoma Panhandle
    border. With ample instability observed across the region per
    evening AMA/DDC RAOBs and southeast surface winds contributing to
    ample shear, storm persistence is expected. While large hail is the
    primary risk at this time, locally damaging winds or even a tornado
    are also a possibility.

    One cell over northern Texas County OK has shown some tendency for
    slow southward propagation over the past hour. As a 40 kt southerly
    low-level jet develops across the area this evening, more pronounced south-southeastward propagation may occur. Though storms should
    remain isolated, an expansion in coverage could necessitate
    consideration of WW issuance over the next couple of hours.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36460222 36960224 37000011 36929978 36299935 35669963
    35439999 35430050 35430109 35970186 36460222



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