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ACUS11 KWNS 192229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192228
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-200030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0795
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Areas affected...Southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 192228Z - 200030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat increasing across the discussion area.
Convective trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convection with transient supercell characteristics
entering Phillips County, Colorado is expected to continue
propagating eastward into southwest Nebraska. Here, the ambient
environment is characterized by moderate buoyancy (mainly driven by
rich low-level moisture), strong bulk effective shear of around 60
knots, and respectable low-level directional shear. As such, the
Colorado storms may persist eastward into this favorable
environment. The combination of wet-bulb freezing temperatures below
10,000 feet and favorable shear environment suggest that large hail
will be the predominant threat with this activity.

Given the isolated spatial extent of the threat, a WW issuance may
not be needed, but convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Squitieri/Jirak/Guyer.. 06/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 41020249 41380230 41680179 41650105 41320050 40780025
40190024 39750075 39860164 40220194 41020249



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