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ACUS11 KWNS 300358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300358
KSZ000-OKZ000-300530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0574
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Oklahoma and southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 133...

Valid 300358Z - 300530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 133
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for isolated severe gusts and a few instances of
large hail continues across Watch 133.

DISCUSSION...Two distinct clusters of convective activity are
ongoing late this evening. The first is primarily anchored by a
semi-discrete HP supercell over Kiowa Co. KFDR VWP data indicate a
wind profile favorable for continued rotation, such that
southeastward motion may persist with this cell. Indeed, mid-level
KFDR data periodically highlight robust updraft features, such as a
stout ZDR column and BWER. In turn, a threat for isolated large hail
and severe wind gusts may persist for perhaps another hour or so
near the southern edge of Watch 133. Over time, convective
inhibition should become too great for maintenance of the severe
threat, though.

Farther north, a collection of embedded supercells and small linear
segments is making steady eastward progress over northern Oklahoma
and southern Kansas. A recent uptick in linear structure has been
noted over southeastern Kansas, and these cells will pose a
localized threat for damaging winds, before the low-level
thermodynamic environment becomes too hostile to maintain this
threat (generally towards the KS/MO border). To the south,
convection also appears to be organizing into mainly
outflow-dominant cells. A residual boundary layer (characterized by
dry air just above a thin, cooling surface layer) will likely
maintain some damaging wind threat over the next few hours. However,
the threat should diminish late tonight, as the low-level jet veers
and cells move into a less favorable thermodynamic environment
farther east.

..Picca.. 05/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 34899912 36629820 37969614 38089543 37979501 37629474
37189479 36389542 35779595 35499636 35029704 34649756
34189772 34259834 34519896 34899912



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