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ACUS11 KWNS 232315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232315
TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-240045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent west Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...

Valid 232315Z - 240045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 118. A downstream
WW across the Texas South Plains is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...A risk for hail and damaging wind gusts continues
across the discussion area. A few instances of large hail have been
noted with isolated, cellular structures over the past hour.
Meanwhile across southern portions of the area, the first signs of
upscale growth have been observed in Eddy, Lea, and Chaves counties
in New Mexico. Moderate instability and minimal convective
inhibition should continue to support the ongoing hail/wind threat,
and meager low-level wind fields suggest that any tornado threat
should remain isolated at best.

With time, upscale growth into linear segments should continue as
low-level flow increases and cold pools expand beneath ongoing
storms. Storms in southeastern New Mexico could reach the eastern
extent of WW 118 and the Texas/New Mexico border over the next
couple of hours or so, pending specific evolution of these upscale
growth processes.

..Cook/Grams.. 05/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 36950536 37100502 37140419 37120360 36970317 36580301
36090296 34660286 33450272 32230247 31330230 30860207
30290208 29860228 29580257 29260287 28990316 29080347
29310418 29620479 30460492 31520510 32610551 33560572
34400579 35070581 35710564 36950536



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ACUS11 KWNS 022148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022148
TXZ000-022345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

Areas affected...central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 120...

Valid 022148Z - 022345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 120
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large, damaging hail will persist from
southwest Texas across the Rio Grande Valley and toward Hill
Country, with a few strong wind gusts into east-central Texas.

DISCUSSION...An MCS persists over central Texas, with a leading
outflow boundary surging southeastward. Ahead of this eastern
activity, a moist and strongly unstable air mass remains in place.
While shear profiles are weak aloft, these storms will continue to
propagate southeastward, aided by modest southeasterly inflow. Given
the amount of outflow, a few strong to severe wind gusts are
possible. Steep lapse rates aloft will also support marginal hail in
the strongest cores.

To the west, easterly flow toward the Rio Grande Valley and
southwest TX will maintain a deep layer of moisture advection
beneath steep lapse rates aloft. Shear will be marginally favorable
for supercells producing large hail, including the threat of
significant hail.

..Jewell/Grams.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29680147 29700251 29050283 28880322 29110381 29970384
30850315 31110236 30870145 30580040 30389923 30549820
30939757 31609705 31539605 31149524 30569490 29939525
29489592 28859736 28629822 28409972 28460050 29050089
29680147



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