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ACUS11 KWNS 232247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232247
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles...far northwestern Oklahoma...and far southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 232247Z - 240045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms across the northern Texas Panhandle and vicinity
are showing signs of upscale growth, which could result in a focused
corridor of marginally severe hail/wind instances. Convective
trends will be monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were gradually increasing in coverage
along a WSW-ENE axis extending from Hartley to Hansford Counties in
the northern Texas Panhandle. The pre-convective environment
supporting these storms was characterized by moderate instability
(MUCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse
rates, but meager low-level shear profiles. As such - convection
has been primarily outflow dominant, and some concern exists that
storms across the region will further grow upscale and propagate
E/ESE across the remainder of the Panhandles and vicinity over the
next couple of hours. If these storms can organize, a risk for
marginally severe hail and wind gusts will likely focus along/near
the leading edge of the activity. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance may not completely be ruled out for this scenario, and
convective trends are being monitored.

..Cook/Grams.. 05/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36970293 37210256 37440204 37740115 37730035 37379950
36899910 36259909 35469969 34930085 34640204 34860311
35080328 36970293



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ACUS11 KWNS 021929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021928
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-022130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northern and northeast
Virginia...Washington D.C....eastern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021928Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Current multicellular clusters, along with anticipated
downstream development, pose an isolated damaging wind threat
through the mid-late afternoon hours. The isolated extent of the
severe threat precludes a WW issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION...Convective development (including multicellular
clusters), is underway across the easternmost fringes of the higher
terrain associated with the Appalachians, along the nose of a
surface thermal ridge. Aloft, large scale mid-level ridging is in
place, suggesting that convective development has mainly been
supported by vigorous boundary layer mixing (with up to 8.5 C/km
sfc-3km AGL lapse rates present as suggested by 19Z RAP forecast
soundings), and orographic lift.

Adequate buoyancy (i.e. 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and effective bulk
shear (30-40 knots of mainly speed shear in the 850-700 mb layer) is
in place. Nonetheless, the lack of stronger synoptic deep-layer
ascent, directional deep-layer shear, and negligible low-level
shear, all suggest that storms should be organized for only brief
periods of time, long enough to perhaps support water loaded
downdrafts capably of producing damaging wind gusts. Given the
brevity and isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is
not anticipated at this time.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37717951 38567864 39457743 39487697 39697614 39327571
38547617 37857820 37717951



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