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ACUS11 KWNS 232034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232034
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-232230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Montana...extreme northern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 232034Z - 232230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
for storms developing in the discussion region. Convective trends
will be monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 45 minutes, visible satellite imagery has
indicated agitated cumulus along a warm-front/differential heating
boundary in southeast Montana. Cumulus agitation has increased with
time with intermittent towering cumulus being observed as well. More
recently, NLDN data has also begun to show a few lightning strikes
occurring with the strongest updrafts. CAM guidance has not been
consistent on when or if storms will form; however, the environment
is favorable for severe hail and, given the steep low-level lapse
rates, severe wind gusts. While there is uncertainty surrounding
storm coverage, a WW may be needed if trends in storm coverage
proves sufficient.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46690605 46700570 46590500 46590464 46520409 46290378
45880370 45170383 44920427 44650553 44580665 44940739
45590806 46340805 46620699 46690605



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ACUS11 KWNS 021923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021923
TXZ000-022130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 120...

Valid 021923Z - 022130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 120
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
central Texas through late this afternoon. Large hail, wind damage
and a brief tornado will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the
Texas Hill Country extending westward into west Texas. A moist
airmass is in place south of the front with surface dewpoints
generally in the lower to mid 60s F. This is contributing to
moderate instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE values from
around 1000 J/kg in the northeastern part of the watch to 3000-3500
J/kg in the southern part. The cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms in the northeastern part of the watch is mostly
elevated, being on the cool side of the front. In spite of this, the
RAP is estimating effective shear in the 30 to 40 kt range and
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8.0 C/km. This suggest that large hail
and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible.

Further southwest, a small cluster of storms is located to the south
of the front. Discrete cells within this cluster will have potential
to be supercells with potential for large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a brief tornado.

..Broyles/Hart.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31549749 30259795 29580016 30000121 30860120 32169848
31549749



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