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ACUS11 KWNS 231951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231951
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-232215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...Southern Virginia...Eastern and Central North
Carolina...Far Northern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231951Z - 232215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage threat is expected to develop
across parts of southern Virginia into central and eastern North
Carolina to far northern South Carolina.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front in
southern Virginia with a moist airmass south of the front across
much of central and eastern North Carolina. Surface dewpoints
generally range from the mid 60s to lower 70s F with the RAP
estimating MLCAPE of 1500 to 2500 J/kg. According to the RAP, 0-3 km
lapse rates have increased into the 7.5 to 8.0 C/km range across
much of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This suggests
that conditions will support a marginal wind damage threat. The
threat should maximize near peak heating. Deep-layer shear appears
too weak to warrant issuing a weather watch.

..Broyles/Hart.. 05/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35968032 35458077 34908055 34427971 34807719 35037557
35647523 36127539 36997622 37397744 37357885 35968032



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ACUS11 KWNS 021848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021847
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-022045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

Areas affected...portions of central into northeast Arkansas...into
the Missouri Bootheel

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021847Z - 022045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible over the next few
hours, with isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two
possible. Convective trends are being monitored for potentially more
organized severe potential.

DISCUSSION...An MCV, remnant from a decaying MCS, has recently
promoted the re-development of somewhat vigorous convection across
portions of central into eastern Arkansas over the past few hours,
with a tornado recently reported in the vicinity of Little Rock,
Arkansas. These storms are developing in high 0-3km CAPE
environment, amidst high amounts of surface vertically-oriented
vorticity (supplement of the MCV), and marginal effective bulk shear
and effective SRH exceeding 200 m2/s2. The modestly sheared
environment may promote some organization of at least transient
supercell structures immediately ahead of the MCV. Relatively high
low-level buoyancy may promote strong enough low-level updrafts
within these transient supercell structures to stretch the
aforementioned surface vertical vorticity to promote continued
tornado-genesis, particularly with the most organized cells. In
addition, a few instances of damaging winds are also possible,
particularly with convective elements most closely located to the
center of the MCV.

Considering the recent, relatively rapid organization within
convective trends, a WW is currently being considered.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 34819144 34819211 35169235 35809154 36499057 36509016
36428965 36038970 35638995 34999076 34819144



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ACUS11 KWNS 021901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021901 COR
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-022045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

Areas affected...portions of central and northeast Arkansas...into
the Missouri Bootheel

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021901Z - 022045Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible over the next few
hours, with isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two
possible. Convective trends are being monitored for potentially more
organized severe.

DISCUSSION...An MCV, remnant from a decaying MCS, has recently
promoted the re-development of somewhat vigorous convection across
portions of central into eastern Arkansas over the past few hours,
with a tornado recently reported in the vicinity of Little Rock,
Arkansas. These storms are developing in a high 0-3km CAPE
environment, amidst high amounts of surface vertically-oriented
vorticity (supplement of the MCV), marginal effective bulk shear,
and effective SRH exceeding 200 m2/s2. The modestly sheared
environment may promote some organization of at least transient
supercell structures immediately ahead of the MCV. Relatively high
low-level buoyancy may foster strong enough low-level updrafts
within these transient supercell structures to stretch the
aforementioned surface vertical vorticity to support continued
tornado-genesis, particularly with the most organized cells. In
addition, a few instances of damaging winds are also possible,
particularly with convective elements most closely located to the
center of the MCV.

Considering the recent, relatively rapid organization in convective
trends, a WW is currently being considered.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 34819144 34819211 35169235 35809154 36499057 36509016
36428965 36038970 35638995 34999076 34819144



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