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ACUS11 KWNS 231756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231755
MEZ000-232030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Areas affected...Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231755Z - 232030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal threat for wind damage and hail will continue
across parts of southern and eastern Maine this afternoon. Weather
watch issuance is not expected across the region.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across
eastern Maine with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s F. This
combined with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s F is contributing
to weak instability ahead of the front. Thunderstorms have developed
over the last hour along the front near August, ME. This activity is
being supported by large-scale ascent associated with an approaching
shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. Regional WSR-88D
VWPs show moderate to strong deep-layer shear suggesting that a
marginal severe threat will continue this afternoon. As the storms
move eastward into the coastal areas, stronger low-level convergence
near the coast should help maintain intensity with the convection.
Although marginally severe wind and hail will be possible, the
potential is not expected to be great enough to warrant weather
watch issuance.

..Broyles/Hart.. 05/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 44536764 44156886 43517048 43817093 44397100 45087058
45426915 45106798 44536764



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ACUS11 KWNS 020112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020111
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Wed May 01 2019

Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 020111Z - 020315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe wind and marginal hail risk may persist into the
ArkLaTex region this evening.

DISCUSSION...A large MCS currently extends from southeast OK into
northwest TX, with the leading surge moving across southeast OK and
northeast TX near the Red River. The air mass ahead of these storms
is very moist and unstable, with 00Z SHV sounding showing CAPE
values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Wind profiles are weak aloft,
but this convective system is being maintained by instability, fed
by 25-35 kt 850 mb flow.

The most likely corridor for severe wind and hail in this area
appears to be along an old front across the ArkLaTex, where access
to the most unstable air is readily available. Latest radar trends
do show an increase in storm coverage northeast of the Metroplex,
which may aid in outflow production.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 32699548 32859602 33039607 33259585 33649572 33909562
34319540 34629533 34909489 35059409 34669333 34069290
33309278 32689292 32319330 32359385 32569483 32699548



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