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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1001

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 04, 2018 02:13:35
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 040213
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040213
    NDZ000-MTZ000-040415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1001
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0913 PM CDT Tue Jul 03 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of Eastern Montana and western North
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 040213Z - 040415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A broken line of storms is moving into better CAPE/shear
    environment across eastern Montana. Severe wind/hail are possible.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms extending south of Glasgow with
    a history of hail and strong wind gusts is moving into a slightly
    more favorable storm environment in eastern Montana. The downstream
    environment is characterized by marginal buoyancy (MLCAPE of
    500-1000 J/kg) and relatively strong shear (effective bulk shear of
    40-50 knots), which indicates the potential for severe hail. Storms
    are expected to move east/northeast along the CAPE gradient and
    there is potential for a supercell or two. If this line continues to
    organize upscale and strengthen as the low-level jet increases this
    evening, severe wind is more likely. This QLCS may merge with storms
    exiting Watch #259. Severe hail/wind are possible and represent the
    main threats as these storms move east/northeast.

    ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/04/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46150730 47080692 47760676 48250620 48610419 48600273
    46920191 45950158 45990300 46120506 46070698 46150730



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