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ACUS11 KWNS 160320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160319
NCZ000-VAZ000-160445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...Central/Southeast VA...Eastern NC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...55...

Valid 160319Z - 160445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54, 55 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across Tornado Watches 54 and
55.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived convective line continues to progress eastward/northeastward across central VA and eastern NC. Damaging
wind gusts have been reported as this line moves across central NC.
Several supercells also developed ahead of this line across central
VA. Strong wind fields (i.e. 60 kt near 1 km) have been sampled by
the MHX and AKQ VADs, contributing to strong low-level helicity and
shear. Additionally, the airmass remains unstable enough for
continue storm development. As such, the potential for damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes continues along and ahead of the line. Any cells
that develop ahead of the line are particularly favored for updraft
rotation capable of producing a tornado (evidenced by the supercells
across central VA).

..Mosier.. 04/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON 37677887 38247839 38057723 36767605 34177629 34467827
36387870 37677887



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ACUS11 KWNS 071445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071444
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-071645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...Far Southwest AR...Northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 071444Z - 071645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm organization and intensification appears
possible across far southwest AR and central MS and convective
trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has recently shown a bit more
linear structure with the ongoing thunderstorm cluster across far
southwest AR. This cluster was initialized by the warm-air advection
across a stalled front (extending from far northwest LA across
southwest AR and into northern MS) and was initially elevated.
Recent convective trends suggest the development of a cold pool,
which could increase the potential for surface-based thunderstorm
development as it pushes eastward into an air mass more favorable
for surface-based development. Recent mesoanalysis suggests limited
convective inhibition exists downstream across northern MS.
Additionally, low-level winds are more southeasterly downstream,
increasing convergence along the cold pool. Some veering of these
winds is expected over the next few hours but a favorable window for thunderstorm organization and intensification will still exist and
convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34109135 34349023 34218877 33268881 32889098 33059176
34109135



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ACUS11 KWNS 071545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071545 COR
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-071645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...Far Southeast AR...Northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 071545Z - 071645Z

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm organization and intensification appears
possible across far southeast AR and central MS and convective
trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has recently shown a bit more
linear structure with the ongoing thunderstorm cluster across far
southeast AR. This cluster was initialized by the warm-air advection
across a stalled front (extending from far northwest LA across
southeast AR and into northern MS) and was initially elevated.
Recent convective trends suggest the development of a cold pool,
which could increase the potential for surface-based thunderstorm
development as it pushes eastward into an air mass more favorable
for surface-based development. Recent mesoanalysis suggests limited
convective inhibition exists downstream across northern MS.
Additionally, low-level winds are more southeasterly downstream,
increasing convergence along the cold pool. Some veering of these
winds is expected over the next few hours but a favorable window for thunderstorm organization and intensification will still exist and
convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34109135 34349023 34218877 33268881 32889098 33059176
34109135



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