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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1000

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 04, 2018 00:37:03
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 040037
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040036
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-040130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1000
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0736 PM CDT Tue Jul 03 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast Colorado and Western Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 040036Z - 040130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms should continue to develop across northeast
    Colorado and western Nebraska. Severe wind/hail are possible, but
    the risk is isolated.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of stronger storms are slowly moving to the east/northeast across northeast Colorado and western Nebraska. These
    storms are mostly unorganized with some splits and intermittent
    updraft development along outflow boundaries. These storms are
    moving into a higher CAPE environment (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and
    shear will remain marginal (effective bulk shear of 25-35 knots).
    Surface temperatures are mostly 90+ F and dewpoints are in the 50s
    to low 60s with a well-mixed boundary layer, high LCLs (2-2.5 km
    AGL), and DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg per RAP soundings/mesoanalysis. This
    indicates the potential for isolated damaging winds to accompany the
    isolated severe hail risk. Storms may congeal into a loosely
    organized QLCS as they move into higher CAPE and as the low-level
    jet increases this evening. A watch is unlikely given the overall
    isolated risk for severe wind/hail.

    ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/04/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41000399 41580404 41920407 41920357 41910291 42020151
    41960098 40530092 40000088 40000195 40010266 40040398
    41000399



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