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ACUS11 KWNS 032316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032316
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-040145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0999
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Tue Jul 03 2018

Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...Southeast North Dakota...and
Far Western Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 032316Z - 040145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to form in the next few hours across
eastern South Dakota. Severe hail/wind are the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...A band of clouds over the Dakotas could be in response
to a subtle upper-level shortwave trough moving over the region.
Additionally, a surface low is in central South Dakota with a
surface boundary extending southwest into southeast Wyoming and a
warm front extending east across South Dakota helping to enhance
surface convergence. Per mesoanalysis, the environment is highly
buoyant (3000-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) with sufficient shear (effective
bulk shear of 25-40 knots) to support strong/severe storm
development. Deepening cumulus indicates diminishing convective
inhibition across the area. ABR VAD data shows some low-level
veering winds with height, but there is a weak backing component
around 2 km AGL.

Continued daytime heating and expected enhancement of the low-level
jet should develop thunderstorms that could potentially become
severe. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, large CAPE, and
sufficient shear, severe hail/wind are possible. Storms could
organize upscale into a QLCS and continued storm development is
likely to the south/southwest of any ongoing convection.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 44070074 45120058 46150006 46629838 46729728 46649649
46289610 45429610 44079614 44070074



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