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ACUS11 KWNS 032025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032025
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-032230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0997
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Tue Jul 03 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Montana and northeastern
Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 032025Z - 032230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms developing off the Big Horn
and Laramie mountains may pose a risk for severe hail and wind
during the next few hours. A gradual increase in coverage and
intensity is possible as activity approaches the western South
Dakota state border area, including the Black Hills vicinity, by
around 6 PM MDT. While a severe weather watch is not anticipated in
the near term, one may be needed by early evening.

DISCUSSION...Aided by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with
an approaching short wave trough, convective development appears in
the process of initiating across the Laramie and Big Horn Mountains.
This activity is expected to gradually strengthen during the next
few hours, as 20-30 kt southwesterly deep layer mean flow (strongest
across and northeast of the Big Horns) contributes to propagation
off the higher terrain into a destabilizing boundary layer to the east/northeast of the mountains.

To the immediate lee of the mountains, a relatively deeply mixed
boundary layer may remain characterized by modest to weak CAPE, but
pronounced veering of winds with height appears to be contributing
to sufficient shear to support high based supercells with a risk for
severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. Toward 23-00Z, as storms
and and associated consolidating surface cold pools continue to
spread into an increasingly moist and unstable environment closer to
Black Hills/western South Dakota state border area, further
intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible.

..Kerr/Hart.. 07/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 45570789 45840465 44040342 42800392 42650532 42940580
43130658 44370681 45240753 45570789



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