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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0727

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 13, 2018 23:32:13
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132332
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132331
    NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-140100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0727
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0631 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

    Areas affected...Parts of the central and southern high Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 132331Z - 140100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Some intensification to widely scattered thunderstorm
    development still appears possible into and through the 7-9 PM MDT
    time frame. Some of this may be accompanied by a risk for severe
    hail and strong surface gusts, but the overall threat is generally
    not expected to require a severe weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development off the Colorado and
    northern New Mexico Rockies has likely been suppressed by generally
    weak shear and perhaps marginal instability. However, a light
    westerly deep layer mean flow will continue to aid eastward
    propagation into the high Plains of Colorado, and along the southern
    slopes of the Raton Mesa, where modest but increasing low-level
    moisture is supporting at least somewhat larger CAPE. 20+ kt
    southerly low-level flow east of the higher terrain is also
    contributing to deep layer shear more favorable to convective
    organization, and boundary layer decoupling may result in low-level
    jet strengthening to 30-40+ kt by late evening. Thus, there appears
    at least a window of opportunity for some increase in thunderstorms
    with a risk for severe hail and strong wind gusts, before activity
    diminishes in waning boundary layer instability later this evening.

    ..Kerr/Weiss.. 06/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36140470 36720443 37370393 38670304 39250266 40330261
    40840226 40750111 39590129 37180194 35930322 35400463
    36140470



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