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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0725

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 13, 2018 22:11:41
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 132211
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132210
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-132345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0725
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0510 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...and the
    northern West Virginia panhandle.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 132210Z - 132345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms have started to form along and ahead of the cold
    front. If storm coverage increases, a severe thunderstorm watch may
    be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe storms have developed along and
    ahead of the cold front in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.
    These storms have formed in an environment with MLCAPE around 1500
    J/kg and effective shear of 40 to 50 knots. The stronger flow aloft
    extends down below 2 km per the PBZ 88D VWP. Thus, any storm
    organization should support sufficient momentum transfer of these
    stronger winds to the surface. Isolated large hail is possible with
    the strongest updrafts, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit
    the overall hail threat. Storm coverage will be a question with weak convergence along the front and the better forcing to the north.
    Will continue to monitor storm development in this area and may need
    a severe thunderstorm watch if storm coverage increases and a more
    organized severe threat appears likely.

    ..Bentley/Weiss.. 06/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 41997973 41997865 41917815 41857714 41487686 40797695
    40357714 39827767 39757874 39828014 39778056 39778134
    39818184 39848213 40038221 40938070 41997973



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