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ACUS11 KWNS 160107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160107
NCZ000-VAZ000-160230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...Eastern NC...Southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 160107Z - 160230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored for a Tornado Watch downstream of
the ongoing convective line.

DISCUSSION...Current storm tracks suggest the ongoing convective
line will reach the edge of Tornado Watch 53 or 54 around 0230Z. The
southern portion of the line has shown a modest increase in forward
progression so there is some potential that the increased forward
speed brings the line to the edge of Tornado Watch 53 before 0230Z.

Continued theta-e advection is expected to offset nocturnal
stabilization somewhat with much of the region remaining weakly
unstable. At the same time, low-level wind fields will strengthen,
enlarging hodographs and creating a kinematic environment that is
very supportive of low-level rotation. There is some potential for
the convective line to be outflow dominant by the time it reaches
eastern NC/southeast VA but overall convective evolution remains
uncertain. However, given the favorable kinematic fields, trends
will be monitored closely and a downstream tornado watch will likely
be needed soon.

..Mosier/Hart.. 04/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34577765 34867788 35417792 37147729 37177606 36167603
34917658 34537698 34507741 34577765



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ACUS11 KWNS 071142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071141
TXZ000-071315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...portions of central/southern Texas toward the Upper
Texas Coast vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 40...

Valid 071141Z - 071315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 40
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds, hail and possibly tornado or two are
expected through the morning hours from parts of central/southern
Texas toward the Upper Texas Coast vicinity. A new watch will be
needed downstream of WW 40 in the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...A bowing line of convection is currently tracking
east/northeast across portions of the Texas Hill Country into
southern Texas. This line was moving roughly along and south of quasi-stationary front stretching from near San Antonio
northeastward into northern LA. Strong ascent and weak inhibition
across the warm sector has lead to multiple areas of convection
developing ahead of the bowing line as well as in the vicinity of
surface boundary further to the northeast. This has resulted in a
somewhat messy evolution initially this morning. However, latest
surface observation at UVA showed a temperature of 58 degrees and
COT was 62 degrees. This suggests that a stronger cold pool is
becoming better established. Furthermore, latest VWP from the CRP
88-D showed increasing 3-6km winds of around 50 kt. All of this
suggests that intensification of the line should occur through the
morning hours and a the rear inflow jet strengthens. As such, a
downstream watch will likely be needed by around 13z.

In addition to damaging winds and hail, at least a low-end tornado
threat will exist. Low level shear is not overly impressive, but
backed low level flow and the presence of the surface boundary will
provide enough focus for both mesovortex formation along the line as
well as for rotating updrafts in any discrete warm sector cells
ahead of the line.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28569585 28019675 27529745 27389814 27539880 27989891
29489926 29809918 30379682 30499638 30779538 30329476
29609448 29239488 28569585



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