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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0724

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 13, 2018 20:15:12
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132015
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132014
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-132215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0724
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

    Areas affected...Ohio Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 132014Z - 132215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop along and just
    ahead of a cold front stretching from southeastern Illinois to
    eastern Ohio. Marginally severe hail/wind are possible.

    DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is moving east-southeast across
    the Ohio Valley as an upper level shortwave trough moves across
    southern Canada. MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg along and ahead of
    the front and effective bulk shear values of 25-35 knots should
    produce some organized convection. Very dry air above 700mb may
    inhibit sustained updraft intensity, but sufficient forcing should
    continue to develop new updrafts along the cold front. Additionally,
    surface dewpoints in the 70s and mean mixing ratios ~15 g/kg should
    provide enough moisture for continued thunderstorm development.
    Marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts are possible with any
    sustained, mature cells, but widespread coverage of severe
    thunderstorms is not anticipated.

    ..Nauslar/Dean/Grams.. 06/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 39328808 39468752 39778626 40218454 40528319 40698253
    40878182 39858145 39668190 39468251 39318324 39008452
    38738594 38538714 38318821 38678845 39168854 39328808



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