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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0721

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 13, 2018 16:15:42
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 131615
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131614
    NEZ000-SDZ000-131715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0721
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1114 AM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

    Areas affected...northern NE...southern SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 131614Z - 131715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail associated with elevated thunderstorms may
    continue to persist for the next few hours. The limited spatial
    extent of the expected threat will likely preclude a severe
    thunderstorm watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar data shows a cluster of thunderstorms
    straddling the NE/SD vicinity to the west of the MO River. MRMS
    data indicates hail size has ranged from 1-2.5 inches during the
    past half hour. This activity is forming within a zone of warm air
    advection and is implied by the strongly veering flow per KLNX VAD
    data. The residual frontal zone is draped near and west of the area
    from southwest NE northward into southwest SD. To the west of the
    boundary, a pronounced moist axis is evident in surface
    observational data with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s and
    lowering into the middle 50s in north-central NE/south-central SD.

    A weak mid-level vorticity lobe over eastern WY moving into
    southwest SD/northern NE Panhandle may be partly responsible for the
    ongoing thunderstorm uptick in coverage. As this feature slowly
    moves eastward along the NE/SD border during the early afternoon, it
    may continue to support additional elevated thunderstorms. Sporadic occurrences of large hail may continue for the next few hours.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 06/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42510138 43480204 43930122 43880023 42849972 42429995
    42320062 42510138



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