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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0719

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 13, 2018 05:40:42
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130540
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130540
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-130815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0719
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1240 AM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

    Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...Western Oklahoma...Southwest
    Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 130540Z - 130815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across parts of the
    temporal extension of severe thunderstorm 174. Isolated large hail
    and wind damage will be the primary threats. The severe potential is
    expected to gradually decrease and a new weather watch will probably
    not be needed beyond the 07Z expiration.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing from the Texas Panhandle extending northward
    into southwest Kansas and eastward into western Oklahoma. These
    storms are located in a moist airmass with moderate instability in
    place. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values from around 1500 J/kg
    across much of the Texas Panhandle to near 3000 J/kg in parts of
    southwest Kansas. In addition, a 30 to 40 kt low-level jet is
    located across the southern High Plains. The MCS is located in the
    exit region of the low-level jet where lift is maximized. This
    combined with the instability will help maintain the storms within
    the MCS for several more hours and a severe threat is expected to
    continue. Although the supercell potential has diminished, isolated
    large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with the
    stronger multicells.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 33549944 33360097 33720200 34890221 37070234 37550137
    37620072 37689978 37589867 36949831 34729878 33549944



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