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ACUS11 KWNS 070146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070145
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0657
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 PM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Areas affected...Central/Eastern NE...Western/Central IA...Northeast KS...Northwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157...

Valid 070145Z - 070315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe wind and hail threat continues across WW 157.
Ongoing storms should tend to weaken with time, but additional
storms may move in from the west later this evening.

DISCUSSION...At 0145Z, cell mergers have resulted in two separate
clusters of convection across WW 157, one across east-central NE and
the other arcing from south-central into west-central IA. While
low/midlevel flow and effective shear is relatively weak across the
region, steep lapse rates and large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000
J/kg) are supporting a threat of large hail with the remaining
discrete cells across eastern NE/western IA. Meanwhile, expanding
cold pools are still supporting a severe wind risk, though there has
been a tendency for outflows to spread well ahead of the active
convection, resulting in a gradual decrease in storm organization
with time.

In the short term, a threat of severe wind and hail will continue to
spread southward from ongoing convection. The easternmost convection
will begin spreading out of WW 157 into northern MO with a localized
severe wind risk, though this threat should become increasingly
marginal with time. A gradual decreasing trend should continue into mid/late-evening with ongoing convection, though other storms may
eventually move into the region later tonight from the west.

..Dean.. 06/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 40059822 40349844 40699875 40909895 41129917 41749920
41779771 41909649 42209562 41839476 41309370 40919273
40339246 40049390 39839542 39679651 39719814 40059822



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