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ACUS11 KWNS 070100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070059
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-070300-
Mesoscale Discussion 0656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018
Areas affected...Parts of southwest Nebraska...northeast
Colorado...southwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158...
Valid 070059Z - 070300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158
continues.
SUMMARY...Risk for severe hail may continue another couple of hours,
with increasing potential for strong wind gusts developing through
late evening.
DISCUSSION...Perhaps the most prominent convective development is
now centered near Sidney NE, in the form of an upscale growing
cluster of storms. This is being supported by weak low/mid-level
warm advection, which appears generally focused in corridor east of
the formerly tornadic supercell near Laramie, through areas of
Nebraska to the north of Sidney/Ogalalla and North Platte. Models
suggest that, as the boundary layer increasingly decouples through
02-04Z, the nose of a strengthening southerly low-level jet (30-40+
kt) will become focused across this region. This appears likely to
promote further upscale convective growth in the presence of steep
lapse rates and moderate to large CAPE, with the evolution of an
increasing organized mesoscale convective system possible. Embedded
within light southwesterly deep layer mean flow, east/southeastward
progression will initially be slow, at least until sub-cloud
evaporative cooling supports a sufficiently strong surface cold
pool.
..Kerr.. 06/07/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41680344 42160209 41860050 41210006 40510013 39720067
39640162 39780223 40010256 40650290 40900347 41680344
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