• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0656

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 07, 2018 01:00:12
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    ACUS11 KWNS 070100
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070059
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-070300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0656
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0759 PM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

    Areas affected...Parts of southwest Nebraska...northeast
    Colorado...southwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158...

    Valid 070059Z - 070300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Risk for severe hail may continue another couple of hours,
    with increasing potential for strong wind gusts developing through
    late evening.

    DISCUSSION...Perhaps the most prominent convective development is
    now centered near Sidney NE, in the form of an upscale growing
    cluster of storms. This is being supported by weak low/mid-level
    warm advection, which appears generally focused in corridor east of
    the formerly tornadic supercell near Laramie, through areas of
    Nebraska to the north of Sidney/Ogalalla and North Platte. Models
    suggest that, as the boundary layer increasingly decouples through
    02-04Z, the nose of a strengthening southerly low-level jet (30-40+
    kt) will become focused across this region. This appears likely to
    promote further upscale convective growth in the presence of steep
    lapse rates and moderate to large CAPE, with the evolution of an
    increasing organized mesoscale convective system possible. Embedded
    within light southwesterly deep layer mean flow, east/southeastward
    progression will initially be slow, at least until sub-cloud
    evaporative cooling supports a sufficiently strong surface cold
    pool.

    ..Kerr.. 06/07/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41680344 42160209 41860050 41210006 40510013 39720067
    39640162 39780223 40010256 40650290 40900347 41680344



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