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ACUS11 KWNS 062050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062049
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-062215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 062049Z - 062215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across the central High
Plains. Hail/wind should accompany storms as they mature and spread
east this evening. WW is warranted across this region.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to
significant destabilization across the central High Plains this
afternoon. Surface observations are nearing convective temperatures
with readings climbing into the lower 90s. Convection is gradually
deepening along the Front Range of CO and thermals are strengthening
north of the Palmer Divide. These storms will gradually intensify
over the next few hours as updrafts encounter increasingly
moist/upslope flow over northeast CO. While initial activity may
exhibit supercell characteristics, latest thinking is clustering
will occur over the plains this evening and an MCS may ultimately
evolve into southwest NE as LLJ strengthens after sunset.

Farther south, boundary-layer Cu field is deepening over western KS.
This activity is evolving within a fairly unstable air mass with
MLCAPE values on the order 4000 J/kg. Latest CAM guidance suggests thunderstorms will develop over the next few hours across western
KS. Slow-moving supercells will be the initial storm mode, but
clusters will likely occur and a possible MCS may develop by late
evening. Large hail and wind can be expected across the High Plains,
although a tornado can not be ruled out with early-evening
supercells.

..Darrow/Nauslar/Weiss.. 06/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 37310113 39300242 39710435 41160471 42260185 41239989
37579934 37310113



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