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ACUS11 KWNS 060749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060748
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 AM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Areas affected...West-central/southwest MN...Eastern SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156...

Valid 060748Z - 060915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 156
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts and isolated hail will remain possible
across west-central/southwest MN and east-central SD for the next
few hours

DISCUSSION...Organized MCS continues to track southeastward through west-central MN and east-central SD. Estimated motion on the
northern portion of this convective system is southeastward (i.e.
from about 300 degrees) at 40-45 kt, which is a bit faster than the
southern end. Strong wind gusts (i.e. around 35 kt) have been
measured across west-central MN. Despite the decrease in
instability, updraft strength has remained fairly strong within the
northern portion of the line, which is a testament to its
well-organized structure. However, the downstream airmass will
become increasingly hostile to convective and the general
expectation is for a downward trend in intensity to begin soon.

Updraft strength within the southern portion of the line over
east-central SD has actually increased over the past hour as it has transitioned from an easterly storm motion to more northeasterly
motion. Additionally, the strong pressure fall/rise/fall pattern
noted in the surface observations is contributing to strong wind
gusts well behind the leading edge of the line. Earlier this evening
PIR gusts over 50 kt for about an hour and HON recently gusted to 64
kt. Airmass downstream across southwestern MN is a bit more unstable
than areas farther north but strong convective inhibition is still
expected to result in gradually diminishing storm strength.

Even with the expectation for the line to begin weakening, damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail will still be possible for the next few
hours across both west-central MN and east-central NE/southwest MN.

..Mosier.. 06/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 45349704 46029657 46509605 46769523 45859408 44339474
43729701 43859838 44409767 45349704



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