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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0650

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 06, 2018 06:41:39
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    ACUS11 KWNS 060641
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060640
    TXZ000-060845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0650
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 AM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

    Areas affected...North-central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 060640Z - 060845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail is possible across north-central TX during the
    next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm initiated quickly across northwest
    Collin county and recently underwent a storm split, with both splits
    likely currently producing severe hail. Deep moisture (i.e. 15.8
    g/kg 100-mb mean mixing-ratio on the 00Z FWD sounding) and steep
    mid-level lapse rates currently support moderate to strong
    instability across the region. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MUCAPE
    is currently around 3000 J/kg. Additionally, recent KFWS VAD shows a
    vertically veering wind profile with 0-3 km SRH over 450 m2/s2 and
    0-6 km bulk shear over 45 kt. Even greater SRH is likely being
    realized by the southwestward moving storm. These factors, coupled
    with favorable warm-air advection aided inflow, will likely support
    storm maintenance for the next few hours. Given the elevated
    character of the storms, the primary severe threat is large hail.
    Isolated instances of very large hail (i.e. greater than 2 inches in
    diameter) cannot be ruled out.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32879755 33279708 33369663 33349626 33129603 32519632
    32089689 32079762 32879755



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