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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0273

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, April 15, 2018 22:29:33
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152229
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152228
    VAZ000-NCZ000-152330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0273
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0528 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

    Areas affected...Central VA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 53...54...

    Valid 152228Z - 152330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53, 54 continues.

    SUMMARY...Tornado Watch 54 was just issued for central VA. An areal
    expansion of Tornado Watch 53 will occur soon into portions of
    central NC.

    DISCUSSION...The convective line moving across western VA and
    central NC has gradually been increasing in forward speeds and
    severe thunderstorm warnings now extend to the eastern edge of WW
    53. The northern extent of the severe potential is constrained by
    the wedge front draped from the eastern WV Panhandle across central
    VA and across the far southern Delmarva Peninsula. Even with this
    constraint, some severe potential exists across central VA for the
    next few hours with the approaching convective line. This line has
    produced tornadoes in the past and the overall environment remains
    supportive of embedded circulations, prompting the issuance of
    Tornado Watch 54 in central VA.

    Farther south, a local extension in area will occur soon into (per
    coordination with WFO RAH) across parts of central NC as the
    convective line continues to progress quickly northeastward.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 04/15/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36367751 35117813 35027884 36357874 37347864 37947836
    38067815 38057770 37917734 37587713 37387722 36997731
    36367751



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, April 07, 2019 06:43:29
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 070643
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070643
    KSZ000-NEZ000-070745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0273
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0143 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

    Areas affected...far south-central Nebraska into north-central KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 070643Z - 070745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail near 1 inch in diameter will be possible the
    next 1-2 hours as storms track southeast from south-central Nebraska
    into north-central KS.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms may continue to pose a
    marginally severe hail threat the next 1-2 hours as they track
    southeast from far south-central NE into north-central KS. These
    storms were occurring in an area of weak forcing associated with the
    northern stream shortwave trough moving across the central Plains
    and in the vicinity of a surface trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates
    around 7-8 C/km per 00z regional RAOBs and weak elevated instability
    will continue to support some stronger updrafts over the next couple
    of hours. As the storms track further southeast, they may encounter
    some subsidence on the back side of a MCV currently over far
    southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest IA. The impact of this
    subsidence is evident in surface dewpoints falling into the mid 40s
    across central KS the last couple of hours. Given the localized
    nature of the threat, and that storms are expected to weaken in the
    next couple of hours, a watch is not expected.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

    LAT...LON 40429894 40309844 39959763 39549742 39249742 39099766
    39139833 39419882 39759907 40179923 40429894



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