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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0580

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 31, 2018 01:22:40
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310122
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310122
    OKZ000-KSZ000-310215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0580
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0822 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of south-central and southeastern Kansas...north/central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 310122Z - 310215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms in the Oklahoma and far northern Texas
    Panhandles is expected to continue moving east and grow upscale with
    time. Severe wind gusts and isolated hail will be possible with
    these storms. A WW is likely by about 02Z.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is ongoing in the Oklahoma and far
    northern Texas Panhandles. Per KAMA radar, the southern flank of
    this activity has seen a recent uptick in intensity. This uptick in
    activity is coincident with the cluster encountering a more
    favorable convective environment and downstream dewpoints range from
    the mid-60s to low-70s in Oklahoma. MLCAPE values range from 1500 to
    3500 J/kg per mesoanalysis. Recent CAMs guidance also depicts more
    development on the southern flank. While storms currently remain
    semi-discrete, with time cold pools should congeal and a more linear
    mode will dominate. Upscale growth with further be aided by an
    increase in the LLJ within the next few hours. The greatest
    uncertainty with this activity is how far south the storms will push
    into Oklahoma. A WW will likely be issued by about 02Z.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 36859994 37529956 37729897 37849763 37939691 37889583
    37359535 36679515 36069532 35509581 35359645 35369747
    35339854 35509929 35859976 35899985 36859994



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