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ACUS11 KWNS 301926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301925
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-302130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0575
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Far northeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 301925Z - 302130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms are developing across the region, with
more widespread coverage expected. A WW may be necessary sometime
later this afternoon, especially for southeast Colorado and far
northeast New Mexico.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has recently initiated off the
higher terrain of the Colorado Front Range, with further
intensification and greater areal coverage expected. Surface
dewpoints have been slowly increasing into the lower 50s F across
the region over the past few hours, beneath relatively steep lapse
rates within a deep layer of the atmosphere (i.e 7.5-8.6 C/km from
1-6km). As such, modest instability (approximately 500 J/kg) is
present across the area and is expected to increase throughout the
afternoon in tandem with the diurnal cycle.

While 35-45 kts of bulk shear supports some storm organization,
particularly in southern Colorado, meager low-level shear suggests
that most storms will become outflow dominant, especially in
northern regions of the discussion area. As convective coverage
gradually increases, some upscale growth in the form of linear
clusters should occur (as suggested by recent high-resolution model
guidance). One or more MCSs may be possible, especially in
southeastern Colorado into far northeast New Mexico, where stronger
mid-level flow and bulk shear are currently in place.

As such, a severe thunderstorm watch may eventually be needed
(particularly in southeastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico) pending
convective trends.

..Squitieri/Cook/Weiss.. 05/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 39950502 40240480 40360445 40310376 40180331 39800286
39540258 39120245 38600233 37970226 37420230 36820249
36490286 36290334 36320402 36420466 36820490 37860511
38900518 39950502



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