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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1006

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 04, 2018 12:10:37
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041210
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041210
    MNZ000-041345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1006
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0710 AM CDT Wed Jul 04 2018

    Areas affected...northern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263...

    Valid 041210Z - 041345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Overall severe threat continues to wane as compared to
    earlier this morning. However, an isolated severe wind gust or two
    cannot be ruled out. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not
    expected, however.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived, linear mesoscale convective system (MCS)
    continues to generally weaken this morning across portions of
    northern Minnesota. This is evidenced by both overall radar
    presentation and warming cloud tops. The background environment,
    although not nearly as favorable as earlier this morning, remains
    seasonably unstable (most-unstable CAPE values around 2000 J/kg) and sufficiently sheared (deep-layer shear around 30 knots -- especially
    across northern areas) to support a couple intense cores capable of
    producing an isolated severe wind gust or two before either
    dissipating or moving into Canada later this morning.

    Given the limited spatio-temporal nature of the threat, a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected downstream of Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 263.

    ..Marsh.. 07/04/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

    LAT...LON 46449499 48709462 47969136 46569256 46449499



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