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ACUS11 KWNS 152042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152042
FLZ000-152145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...the southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

Valid 152042Z - 152145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado watch 51 will expire at 22Z. A threat for mainly
isolated damaging wind will linger over the southern half of the
peninsula into the evening, but it is uncertain at this time whether
the threat will be sufficient for another WW.

DISCUSSION...Late this afternoon thunderstorms associated with a
convergence zone along the east coast are in the process of moving
offshore. Additional storms have moved inland along the west coast
and extend southward into the Gulf just west of the Keys. These
storms will continue east into the evening and may pose a modest
threat for mostly isolated damaging wind. The downstream atmosphere
is moderately unstable with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. However mid-level
lapse rates are very weak due to warm temperatures aloft. Moreover,
tendency will be for low-level winds to continue to veer as a more
significant shortwave trough passes well north of this region. While
vertical wind and shear profiles should undergo some increase with
35-40 kt bulk shear supportive of organized storms, the marginal
nature of the thermodynamic environment lowers confidence in a more
robust severe threat. As as result any additional WW issuance for
southern FL will depend on convective trends.

..Dial.. 04/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 25458098 25968140 26188168 26778189 27788180 27928113
27578056 26618030 25698060 25458098



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ACUS11 KWNS 070045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070044
LAZ000-TXZ000-070245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...eastern Texas into western Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 39...

Valid 070044Z - 070245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 39 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells producing large hail continue across the watch
area. A brief tornado remains possible.

DISCUSSION...With increasing boundary layer stability, storms have
become less widespread/consolidated this evening, with the most
severe activity over eastern TX near the outflow boundary. Here,
strong instability remains in place, with ample moisture. Several
supercells have thrived, producing very large, damaging hail. Even
west of the outflow boundary, and in a region of weak winds,
redevelopment has occurred east of Austin.

The 00Z LCH sounding shows the very moist boundary layer and steep
lapse rates aloft, and little capping exists in areas where moisture
is most abundant.

Ongoing supercells may persist for some time this evening, and
isolated development cannot be ruled out along southern fringes of
the tornado watch. A tornado or two remain possible, but would
likely be brief. In addition, 850 mb flow will continue to weaken
and veer this evening, from west to east. At 00Z, the GRK VWP showed
winds generally less than 20 kt above the surface and through 3km.

..Jewell.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30969301 30739452 30519507 30389636 30299713 30439737
30719711 31439554 31909471 32979220 32819161 32299152
31729192 31369226 30969301



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