This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1530683378-38885-6165
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 040549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040549
MNZ000-NDZ000-040745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 04 2018

Areas affected...North Dakota and northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...261...

Valid 040549Z - 040745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259, 261
continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple areas of thunderstorms continue across North
Dakota. Given favorable environment, these thunderstorms will
continue to pose a threat for wind and hail for at least a few more
hours.

DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of strong-to-severe thunderstorms are
ongoing across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261.

Area 1 is located across across south-central North Dakota where a
strong, linear mesoscale convective system (MCS) is moving
east-northeast. This complex will continue to be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and hail. Additionally, strong
warm-air advection along and ahead of this MCS will support isolated
northward thunderstorms ahead of the MCS. A couple of such storms
are currently moving northward out of South Dakota. Isolated hail
will be the main threat with these storms. The airmass ahead of
these thunderstorms remains very sufficiently sheared and unstable,
with most-unstable CAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg and deep-layer shear
between 30 and 40 knots. The threat for severe hail and damaging
thunderstorm winds should persist for at least a few more hours this
morning. Given the speed of the aforementioned MCS, and favorable
environment ahead of it, a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch may become
necessary for portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota.

Area 2 is located to the northwest of area 1, across western North
Dakota. These thunderstorms appear to be forced on the leading edge
of the stronger ascent associated with a short-wave trough and
attendant jet stream moving across the region. Although these
thunderstorms appear to be somewhat weaker than their counterparts
to the southeast, strong tropospheric flow will yield at least some
threat for damaging thunderstorm winds.

..Marsh.. 07/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48720294 48609526 46079643 46230307 48720294



------------=_1530683378-38885-6165
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1530683378-38885-6165--

--- SBBSecho 3.05-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)