This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1530142664-38885-1480
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 272337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272337
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-280230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0911
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272337Z - 280230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered convection should continue and increase across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the evening. Strong wind gusts and
a brief tornado are possible.

DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has inhibited widespread destabilization
across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening. Storms have
developed along the warm front in eastern Virginia, within the warm
sector in central Virginia, and along/ahead a cold front across
eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania/northern West Virginia. The storm
environment is mostly characterized by weak-moderate buoyancy
(MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg) and marginal shear (effective bulk shear
30-35 knots).

As the warm front lifts north, there will be a relatively confined
area (see Marginal area in Day 1 Convective Outlook) in northern
Virginia, Maryland and south-central Pennsylvania where low-level
shear will increase (effective SRH 200-300 m2/s2 and RAP soundings
depict favorable hodograph curvature). Low-level flow will increase
(10-15 knots) and veer with height during 00-06z in response to an
upper-level shortwave trough moving into the region. This may
provide a window for storms to intensify and develop rotation that
would increase the likelihood of strong wind gusts and a brief
tornado. Overall, the risk for severe weather should remain
isolated, most likely precluding any watch issuance.

..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 41447836 41377920 40087920 38697902 37877894 37927806
37927696 37997623 38087574 38667574 39747593 40327627
40977671 41437741 41447836



------------=_1530142664-38885-1480
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1530142664-38885-1480--

--- SBBSecho 3.04-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)