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ACUS01 KWNS 152042
SWODY1
SPC AC 152040

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Valid 152040Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SC...NC INTO VA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VA TO CENTRAL FL...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO MIDDLE-ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH FL...

CORRECTED GENERAL THUNDERSTORM GRAPHIC LINES.

...SUMMARY...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move northeast across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States through tonight. Damaging
winds and tornadoes are most likely from eastern South Carolina into
Virginia through early evening.

...VA/Carolinas to FL...
The ongoing severe-weather threat will persist the rest of this
afternoon into the evening across portions of the Carolinas and VA
to coastal GA, and across the FL Peninsula. The western portions of
the categorical and severe probabilities have been trimmed, given
the eastward progression of the squall line.

Day 1 forecast reasoning remains valid with this outlook issuance.
At mid-late afternoon, mosaic radar imagery showed a nearly
continuous squall line extending from southwest VA through western
NC to the GA coast into northeast FL. The northeast FL into
adjacent southeast GA portion of the line developed along an
apparent pre-frontal corridor of ascent. Meanwhile, portions of the
long-lived Gulf of Mexico band of storms moved into the coastal
areas of the central FL Gulf Coast toward mid afternoon, and will
continue to approach south FL and the Keys. Discrete storms had
formed in the warm sector across parts of eastern SC and central and
eastern NC, with this trend expected to continue as the large upper
trough approaching the Day 1 severe risk areas becomes more
negatively tilted.

...Parts of northern VA, MD to the Delmarva Peninsula...
No changes with the northeast portion of the marginal risk, as
strong to severe storms will be possible across these areas as the
cold front advances through this region later this evening into the
overnight. The backdoor cold front that was analyzed south of the
lower Potomac River this afternoon is expected to advance north this
evening and tonight as a warm front through at least southern,
central and eastern MD, and the Delmarva Peninsula. Modifying
environment just ahead of the cold front could prove favorable for
strong winds and perhaps a tornado threat.

..Peters.. 04/15/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018/

...North Florida to the Delmarva vicinity...
The base of a prominent upper trough centered over the Midwest will
continue to steadily spread northeastward over the Tennessee Valley
toward the central/southern Appalachians with ample downstream
height falls and a considerable strengthening of south-southwesterly
winds through a deep layer. Persistent cloud cover and relatively
weak mid-level level lapse rates will hinder robust destabilization,
but this will be compensated by an increasingly moist air mass in
conjunction with strengthening deep-layer/low-level shear.

At midday, a nearly continuous squall line continues to intensify
across east Georgia into north Florida while other bands of storms
have more recently increased across the western Carolinas. Largely unidirectional/boundary-parallel wind profiles will initially limit
the eastward progression of the convective bands, but
northeastward-racing bowing segments are likely to evolve over time
with some net east/northeastward acceleration. Damaging winds will
likely be the most common impact, but some tornadoes can be expected
given the degree of low-level SRH coincident with a moist
environment. At least some severe risk may develop into the Delmarva
vicinity late tonight within a weakly unstable/highly sheared
environment.

...Central/South Florida...
While the region will be influenced by more modest mid-level height
falls and weaker deep-layer shear, an approaching squall line over
the Gulf of Mexico will pose some severe risk while additional
development could occur via the east-coast sea breeze. Damaging
winds will exist along with the possibility of a tornado.

...Ohio Valley...
Modest moisture and minimal buoyancy may be sufficient for a few
strong updrafts/downdrafts capable of localized severe in relatively
close proximity to the surface low track.

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 011645
SWODY1
SPC AC 011644

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Tue May 01 2018

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL KS...

CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms are expected over the central Great Plains to
the Mid-Missouri Valley. The most likely corridor is across parts of
central Kansas between 5 to 9 PM CDT. Tornadoes, a couple of which
could be strong, very large hail, and damaging winds will be
possible.

...Central Great Plains to the Upper MS Valley...
12Z soundings across central OK and north-central TX sampled mean
mixing ratios near 12 g/kg within a plume of 63-64 F surface dew
points. Richer moisture with upper 60s and lower 70s dew points
remains confined to south TX this morning. This suggests
boundary-layer moisture return is probably one day too early from
being optimal for a regional severe weather/tornado outbreak. Even
so, confidence is relatively large in storm initiation and probable
evolution in the late afternoon and evening, rendering increased
large hail probabilities.

The dryline is expected to mix across the eastern TX Panhandle and
western KS as surface temperatures warm into the 80s, creating a
T-intersection with a quasi-stationary front arcing across
west-central KS into eastern NE. A broad plume of MLCAPE from
2000-2500 J/kg is anticipated ahead in the warm/moist sector.
Guidance is consistent in ejecting a mid-level speed max ejects from
the southern High Plains into KS by 00Z. This should aid in ascent
for probable storm development in the 20-22Z time frame along the KS
portion of the dryline. Decreasing certainty exists farther south
along the dryline where weak mid-level height rises are anticipated
to occur this evening as the broader trough over southern CA digs a
bit farther south.

50-kt effective shear, nearly perpendicular deep-layer winds to the
dryline, and rather steep mid-level lapse rates will favor discrete
supercells producing very large hail. A few of these supercells may
become long-tracked across central KS and the threat for tornadoes
will increase between 22-02Z as storms encounter richer
boundary-layer moisture (toward the I-135 corridor) and as low-level
shear increases rapidly in response to a strengthening low-level
jet. The synoptic pattern is largely consistent with past Great
Plains cases of the evening low-level jet strengthening and aiding
in mid/late evening significant tornadoes. However, low-level
moisture may remain on the lower margins of what is typical of the
high-end events (with similar temperature profiles and hodograph
structures). The slightly drier boundary layer will encourage a
little quicker increase in convective inhibition, coincident with
the strengthening low-level shear. Thus, it is not clear whether or
not this scenario will evolve into a long-lived significant tornado
threat near sunset, or if the inhibition increase will tend to limit
the window of opportunity. Otherwise, clusters of storms (with
embedded supercells) should persist well into the overnight hours
with an attendant threat for large hail/damaging gusts and a couple
tornadoes, from the triple point northeastward along the
quasi-stationary front into the Upper MS Valley.

...Northeast CO...
An upslope flow regime will help maintain boundary-layer dewpoints
in the 40s across northeast CO through the afternoon, north of a
stalled front. Surface heating in cloud breaks will yield weak
surface-based buoyancy, while deep-layer vertical shear will be
favorable for supercells. A couple supercells may form this
afternoon in conjunction with the northern periphery of the
mid-level speed max ejecting into KS. These storms should move east
before weakening by mid-evening. Isolated large hail and strong
wind gusts will be possible.

..Grams/Goss/Wendt.. 05/01/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 042045
SWODY1
SPC AC 042044

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NY
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...

CORRECTED FOR ERRORS IN CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today east of the lower Great
Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley and western portions of New
England. This includes a threat for widespread damaging winds, as
well as tornadoes across parts of New York and Vermont.

...NY/PA into New England...
Progressive, compact shortwave trough continues to move quickly
towards the Lower Great Lakes. Strong forcing for ascent along the
leading edge of this system has resulted in banded thunderstorm
development across Lower MI and adjacent portions of the Upper OH
Valley. Numerous severe gusts (i.e. greater than 50 kt) were
measured around the DTX as this line moved through. This convection
has weakened somewhat as it moves across the cool water of Lake Erie
but it is expected to re-intensify quickly once it moves into the
steep low-level lapse rate environment over western NY and the
Finger Lakes region. Additionally, storm coverage has increased
south of Lake Erie across northern OH, with this activity expected
to pose a downstream wind damage threat.

Given current storm and environmental trends, a swath of significant
wind gusts looks probable from BUF to BTV where very strong winds
(60 to 70 kt) will exist just above the surface (i.e. 500m to 1 km
AGL) over the next few hours. Recent BUF VAD sampled the leading
edge of this stronger flow, measuring 50 kt around 750m. Expectation
is for these winds to mix down as the convective line moves through.
As a result, 45% wind probabilities were delineated across the
region where the best overlap of convective coverage, steep
low-level lapse rates, and instability exists. This result in an
upgrade to Moderate Risk from western NY northeastward into the
Adirondacks.

As discussed in the previous outlook (appended below),
isolated/discrete cells are still possible over northeast NY as
favorable kinematics align with sufficient instability. Tornado
Watch 76 was recent issued to cover this threat. More short-term
details can be found in MCD 350.

...South TX...
Northeastern extent of the 5% wind probabilities across the region
was trimmed based on ongoing precipitation. Very moist and
moderately unstable environment over the remainder of the region
still supports the potential for a few damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 05/04/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri May 04 2018/

...NY/PA into New England...
Morning water vapor loop shows a very strong, compact, and
progressive shortwave trough moving eastward across MI. This
feature will track rapidly eastward across NY/PA this afternoon.
Impressive mid-level height falls will occur across this region this
afternoon and evening, promoting thunderstorm development along and
ahead of the approaching cold front. Wind fields will rapidly
strengthen through the day, indicating the potential for a rather
widespread damaging wind event, including a few tornadoes across the
ENH risk area. This threat appears to be in two distinct waves.

The first area of risk today will be as isolated/discrete cells form
this afternoon in vicinity of the surface warm front over northeast
NY near the US/Canadian border, and with less confidence farther
south across eastern NY/ and much of VT/NH. Forecast soundings show
only marginally favorable thermodynamic parameters. However,
low-level winds will be very strong with large, looping hodographs.
If convection can remain discrete for awhile, an enhanced tornado
threat will develop in this area. These storms will track eastward
into western ME before weakening this evening.

Farther west, 12z model solutions are consistent in the development
of a fast moving squall line along the front that will race across
the ENH area this afternoon and evening. Given the intense wind
fields (50-60 knots just above the surface), widespread damaging
winds are possible including significant wind damage. If the squall
line can attain sufficient mesoscale organization, the environment
also supports QLCS tornadoes. These storms will affect much of NY
and parts of northern PA before sweeping into VT/NH and parts of
western ME/MA this evening. Marginal thermodynamic parameters are
the primary mitigating factor for a categorical upgrade.

...TX...
A long-lived thunderstorm complex over central TX will likely
persist through the afternoon, sagging southeastward. Strong
heating ahead of the leading edge of storms will promote isolated
strong cells capable of gusty winds. At this time, it appears
unlikely that a more organized severe risk will develop. Therefore
will maintain only MRGL risk.

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 100108
SWODY1
SPC AC 100107

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SURROUNDING
AREAS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA...

CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHICS AND FOR TYPOS

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms is expected to continue into
tonight across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Missouri
Valley region, and perhaps through at least late evening across
parts of north central Montana.

...01Z Outlook Update...
Adjustments have been made to account for ongoing convective trends,
and anticipated trends concerning the onset of nocturnal boundary
layer stabilization over the course of the next few hours.
Thunderstorm activity across the Ohio Valley, Gulf States and
Southeast is diminishing in intensity and coverage, and is generally
expected to continue to do so through the remainder of the period.
Similar trends are expected across the southern Plains and northern intermountain region through the 03-05Z time frame.

Across the middle Mississippi/lower Missouri Valley region,
redevelopment of substantive convection near a remnant mesoscale
convective vortex has been gradual, but a continuing increase in
thunderstorm development still appears possible this evening into
the overnight hours. Upscale convective growth appears ongoing
within a zone of enhanced warm advection across northeastern Iowa.
This zone extends southward across eastern Iowa into northwestern
Illinois, and may provide the focus for strongest storm evolution
this evening. Conditions along the boundary, characterized by at
least modest shear and moderate to large CAPE, appear favorable for
the evolution of a mesoscale convective system capable of producing
potentially damaging wind gusts. Later tonight, modest
strengthening of 850 mb flow along a westerly branch emanating from
the Plains, may support additional strong to severe storm
development across parts of southern Iowa/northern Missouri, with a
tendency for the bulk of the convection to develop southeastward
through daybreak.

Across north central Montana, thunderstorm activity continues to
develop ahead of a significant upstream short wave trough. In the
presence of weak to moderate CAPE and moderate to strong shear, a
couple of these may still become severe with a risk for large hail
and strong wind gusts, before the boundary layer stabilizes this
evening.

Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion 688 for information
concerning continuing severe probabilities across parts of eastern
Montana, northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 262000
SWODY1
SPC AC 261958

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN EASTERN IOWA

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat with isolated large hail and wind damage will be
possible across parts of the northern high Plains late this
afternoon into the evening. A threat for tornadoes will also be
possible in parts of south Florida late tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
Two changes have been made to the outlook for this issuance. The
first change is to add a 5 percent tornado and slight risk area to
parts of south Florida. The HRRR suggests that rotating storms will
move inland across south Florida after midnight. RAP forecast
soundings increase low-level shear throughout the night. Forecast
hodographs suggest that a tornado threat will be possible with
semi-discrete rotating cells that move inland in the 06Z to 12Z
timeframe. The second change is to move the thunder line westward to
include eastern Iowa where thunderstorms are developing at this
time.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018/

...ID/MT/ND...
A large upper low over CA continues to drift northeastward, with
strengthening mid level winds and large-scale ascent moving into the
northern Rockies. Strong heating is occurring over much of ID/MT,
with thunderstorms expected to form over the higher terrain by
mid-afternoon. These initial storms will pose a threat of locally
gusty winds and hail. During the evening, more intense and
organized storms are expected to form over parts of central/eastern
MT, tracking into western ND tonight. The combination of a deep,
mixed boundary-layer, sufficient CAPE, and relatively strong
vertical shear profiles support the risk of a few high-based
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. The activity
may organize into bowing structures as they move east tonight.

...FL...
Low-level wind profiles around the northeast quadrant of Alberto are
slowly strengthening, with CAM guidance suggesting shear sufficient
for rotating cells by later this afternoon along and off the coast
of southwest FL. Most model guidance keeps the bulk of the cellular
convection and stronger wind fields offshore, but there is a MRGL
chance of an isolated tornado in vicinity of the southwest coast
through tonight.

...WI/MI...
No changes to forecast have been made to this area. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon over parts of WI
and MI as an upper trough over MN approaches the region. The
strongest cells will be capable of gusty winds and hail, but coverage/organization is expected to be low.

...MO/IL...
Clusters of strong/severe afternoon thunderstorms may form today
over parts of northern MO and central IL. Strong instability is
forecast for this area, with MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg and steep
low-level lapse rates. Shear will be relatively weak, promoting
multicell storm structures with occasional gusty/damaging winds and
hail.

...Central New England...
A weak surface front extends from northeast NY across parts of VT/NH
today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along this
boundary later today, tracking toward the coast by evening.
Instability is rather weak, but strong winds aloft, fast storm
motions, and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of
gusty winds in the strongest cells.

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 051632
SWODY1
SPC AC 051630

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Jul 05 2018

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GREATER SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW
ENGLAND...NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS......

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts will
be possible across portions of the central High Plains and across
the greater southern Great Lakes region into New England. A few
strong wind gusts may also occur across the northern Gulf Coast.

...Central High Plains...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. An expansive
upper ridge extends from the central Rockies eastward across the
Appalachians. Heights continue to rise over the western portions of
the ridge, with relatively weak winds and warm temperatures aloft.
Despite this environment, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop this afternoon in the thermal ridge from the foothills of CO
into east-central WY. A few of these storms may produce gusty winds
and hail. Current indications are that an organized severe threat
will not develop.

...OH Valley into New England...
Multiple clusters of relatively disorganized convection are expected
to affect this region today, where rather warm/humid surface
conditions persist. While the overall synoptic setting is not
favorable for severe storms, pockets of moderate CAPE and mesoscale interactions may result in a gusty winds in the stronger storms
later this afternoon. There is a potential for a more organized
risk of severe storms late tonight as an MCS moves from southern
Quebec into northern New England. However, the overnight timing of
the system lends considerable uncertainty regarding the severe
threat.

...Lower MS Valley...
An upper low continues to track westward along the central Gulf
Coast region. Rather strong mid/upper level winds associated with
this system will overspread LA and southeast TX this afternoon,
where visible satellite imagery shows clear skies. Ample CAPE
steepening low level lapse rates may result in a few gusty/damaging
wind gusts in the strongest cells this afternoon and early evening.

..Hart.. 07/05/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 241643
SWODY1
SPC AC 241642

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TODAY....

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES IN TX AND CA

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
across the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon
and evening.

Models are rather inconsistent today regarding location/timing and
intensity of convection later today. This leads to a relatively
low-confidence outlook. Nevertheless, a few changes have been made
to the MRGL/SLGT areas based on 12z CAM consensus.

...ND/SD/MN this afternoon/evening...
Water vapor loop shows a strong upper trough rotating northward
across MT/ND into Manitoba. Most of the lift associated with this
system will move into Canada by this afternoon, but some potential
for organized severe storms will be present across parts of northern/northeastern ND and eastern SD. Those storms that form
along a weak surface boundary/dryline will be in an environment of
at least moderate CAPE and sufficient vertical shear for
bow/supercell structures. Large hail and damaging winds will be
possible in the strongest cells. This activity should spread
eastward across MN through the evening.

...NE/KS...
Strong heating will yield steep lapse rates and minimal cap this
afternoon over parts of central NE into central KS. Forecast
soundings suggest a very unstable air mass is also likely, with
sufficient mid/upper level flow for some convective organization.
The main forecast uncertainty is the extent of convective
development. About half of the morning CAM solutions suggest storms
will form over north-central NE. If this occurs, damaging winds and
hail would be possible. A more consistent convective signal is
apparent over far eastern CO into western KS, where parameters
appear favorable for damaging wind gusts.

...West TX/Southeast NM...
Once again today, a few thunderstorms are expected to form in the
hot/unstable air mass in place across southeast NM and west TX.
Shear profiles are a little weaker than yesterday and upper forcing
is minimal. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce hail and gusty
winds.

...NV...
A large upper trough is digging into CA, with height falls expected
to commence along the Sierra later today. A cluster of
thunderstorms is forecast to develop over northwest NV, spreading
northward into southern OR tonight. Forecast soundings show
inverted-v profiles and sufficient steering flow for some risk of gusty/damaging wind.

...MN/northern WI/western Upper MI...
A decaying cluster of thunderstorms over northern WI will leave a
remnant outflow boundary, possibly focusing redevelopment of storms
later today. If so, the strongest cells could produce hail and
gusty winds.

..Hart.. 05/24/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 302020
SWODY1
SPC AC 302018

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK...AND ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO/SOUTHWEST
MONTANA VICINITY...

CORRECTED THUNDER LINE OVER THE PLAINS

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather risk remains evident across parts of Oklahoma and
southern Kansas this evening and tonight, with damaging wind gusts
expected. Other strong thunderstorm wind gusts are expected to
develop from the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies this
afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
Forecast reasoning from prior outlooks remains on track, with
convection evolving this afternoon in a manner largely as expected
thus far.

Primary changes to the outlook include a slight eastward extension
of probabilities into southwest Missouri, as some hints exist that
convection crossing parts of Oklahoma and Kansas overnight may
remain organized a bit longer -- and thus persist a bit farther
east, as well as a northward extension of low probabilities into
northeast Montana as storms crossing southern Saskatchewan have
expanded a bit southward across the international border.

Otherwise, only minor line adjustments are being made to the prior
outlook.

..Goss.. 05/30/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018/

...Southeast Colorado/northwest Texas into southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma...
Skies have cleared over the region in the wake of earlier nocturnal
storms with strong diabatic heating likely to occur this afternoon.
12Z regional soundings maintain a layer of steep mid-level lapse
rates, and with low-level moisture expected to spread northwestward
in association with developing southeasterly low-level winds this
afternoon over the High Plains, the environment is forecast to
become moderately unstable with MLCAPE values ranging from 1500-2500
J/kg.

Water vapor imagery shows a mid-upper level vorticity maxima south
of the Four-Corners area that is moving northeastward toward
northern New Mexico and southeast Colorado. A short-wave ridge
preceding this feature will inhibit temporarily large scale ascent
over the High Plains, but as the vorticity maxima approaches from
the southwest, model guidance indicates convective initiation will
occur by 20-22Z over the far southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico
area.

The initial storms are likely to propagate eastward within a band of
30-35 kt mid-level winds into an increasingly moist and unstable air
mass. The kinematic environment will be characterized by veering
winds with height and strong directional shear resulting in 35-45 kt
of deep-layer shear. This will enhance storm organization and
intensity with potential for several supercells to develop during
the earlier stages of the convective life cycle with threats for
large hail and strong wind gusts. As the activity spreads eastward,
CAM/HREF guidance indicates storms will grow upscale into a
forward-propagating MCS after 00Z that will progress across parts of
southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, supported by a strengthening
nocturnal southerly low-level jet developing over western Oklahoma.
As this occurs, the primary severe threat is expected to transition
to damaging wind gusts occurring along the leading edge of the MCS.
Severe potential is likely to continue into the overnight hours with
storm intensity gradually diminishing after 06-08Z.

...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
Occasional thunderstorms are continuing within the southwesterly
flow aloft in advance of short-wave trough lifting northeastward
across northern California at this time. Area soundings exhibit
moderately steep lapse rates and sufficient moisture with PW values
near 0.75 inch. With the likelihood of stronger diabatic heating
occurring on the lateral edges of a cloud band extending from
northeast Nevada into extreme southwest Montana, the air mass will
destabilize with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.

Additional storms are expected to develop by early afternoon and
spread northeastward within the deep layer southwest flow aloft.
Deep-layer vertical shear will be enhanced by 35-45 kt mid-level
winds suggesting a few strong-to-severe storms will be possible this
afternoon and evening. The primary threat is expected to be severe
wind gusts although isolated hail will also be possible with
stronger cores.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes...
The remnant cyclonic circulation from Alberto remains well-defined
in satellite imagery as the system moves northeastward over
southwest Indiana. A band of strong low-level winds within the
eastern periphery of the circulation is sampled by WSR-88D VAD wind
profiles and is associated with strong low-level shear/SRH. The
downstream instability is tempered by continuing warm mid-level
temperatures, but diabatic heating is occurring in areas from
northern Indiana into northwest Ohio and there is potential for
several bands of convection to develop this afternoon and spread to
the north or northeast. A threat for isolated tornadoes or strong
wind gusts will continue into the evening.

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 231652
SWODY1
SPC AC 231651

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the High Plains, eastern portions of Virginia/North
Carolina, and eastern Maine.

...Northern High Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough over the
western states, with an embedded shortwave trough lifting
northeastward through the four-corners region. Lift ahead of this
feature should overspread parts of WY and southeast MT this
afternoon and evening, leading to scattered thunderstorm
development. Strong daytime heating and surface dewpoints in the
50s, coupled with steep mid level lapse rates and relatively cool
temperatures aloft will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500
J/kg and only a weak cap. This, combined with favorable deep-layer
shear will promote rotating updrafts capable of large hail and
damaging winds. As storms spread eastward into parts of SD/NE,
outflow mergers will likely increase the risk of damaging wind gusts
through the evening.

...Southern High Plains...
Another round of afternoon/evening thunderstorms are expected to
affect eastern NM and west TX. Visible satellite imagery confirms
that considerable low-level moisture is in place over this area, and
as the low-clouds burn off this afternoon, a strongly unstable air
mass should develop. Despite the favorable thermodynamic setup,
vertical shear profiles are quite weak and steering flow is 5-10
knots. This will lead to rather disorganized thunderstorms capable
of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Through the evening, CAM
solutions suggest that outflows may organize as they spread into
west TX, with an increased risk of gusty/damaging winds in the more
intense cores.

...VA/NC...
A warm/humid air mass is present today over parts of southern VA and
much of NC, leading to strong afternoon instability (MLCAPE values
of around 1500 J/kg). Models are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will affect this region later this afternoon and
evening. Forecast soundings suggest low-level wind fields will be
quite weak with less than 10kt winds expected in the lowest 4-5km.
This suggests that isolated cells may briefly produce downbursts,
but the threat of a more organized severe event is rather low.

...ME...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to affect parts of ME as a
shortwave trough and associated cold front moves through the area.
Organized severe storms are not expected, but the strongest cells
could produce locally gusty/damaging wind gusts - especially in the
eastern parts of the state.

..Hart.. 05/23/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 141302
SWODY1
SPC AC 141301

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
OHIO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EASTERN VIRGINIA/SOUTHERN MARYLAND
TIDEWATER REGION...

CORRECTED FOR TWO HAIL POINTS

...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm wind appear probable from parts of Ohio to the
mid/lower Chesapeake Bay region. Other thunderstorms, capable of
isolated damaging wind and large hail, are expected from parts of
the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a split-flow regime will persist through the
period across the West, with downstream cyclonic flow over the Great
Lakes and upper Midwest. A temporary Rex pattern will develop over
the Great Basin and Northwest as a 500-mb high moves eastward over
WA/northern ID, while the long-lasting, quasistationary cyclone
centered over northern NV continues to slowly weaken and drift
erratically near its present position. Upper ridging -- now evident
in moisture-channel imagery from MO to the Dakotas -- is forecast to
flatten through the period as heights gradually fall over the Great
Lakes, and a series of low-amplitude perturbations crosses the
Plains and Midwest through the current ridge position. Meanwhile, a
broad deep-layer cyclone -- centered initially over the northeastern
gulf southwest of TBW, is progged to meander irregularly northward
toward the FL Panhandle through the period.

At the surface, a wavy/quasistationary frontal zone was analyzed at
11Z from near the mouth of Chesapeake Bay northwestward across
north-central VA to west-central/southwestern OH, then westward to
the MO/IA border region and a weak frontal-wave low near FNB. The
front extended southwestward to another weak low in the DHT-CAO
region. A dryline extended from there southward into the Big Bend
region of TX. As the dryline mixes eastward across the Panhandles,
South Plains and Permian Basin today, the low will shift eastward
along the triple point. The remainder of the frontal zone will be quasistationary, except where modulated my mesoscale convective
processes. An arctic cold front -- related to a strong mid/upper
cyclone forecast to cross Hudson Bay through the period -- will move southeastward from northern ON across parts of the upper Great Lakes
region overnight.

...Ohio Valley to VA/MD Tidewater...
Potential is increasing for a relative concentration of northwest-southeast-moving thunderstorms today, the primary hazard
being damaging wind. An ongoing/elevated and non-severe
thunderstorm complex has been occurring for a few hours north of the
frontal zone, across portions of the southern Lake Michigan vicinity
eastward over southern Lower MI, northern IN and northwestern OH.
Most of this activity should remain north of the boundary and weaken
with time this morning as the LLJ supplying its predominant inflow
layer weakens. However, surface isallobaric analysis shows a
corridor of pressure rises 2-3 mb per 2 hours penetrating the stable
layer poleward of the front, an indicator of reasonably substantial, convectively induced/aided perturbation in the low levels.

As the related UVV field approaches the diabatically destabilizing
warm sector and frontal surface convergence/vorticity max later this
morning over OH, additional/organized convective development and
subsequent upscale growth are becoming increasingly probable. The
foregoing preconvective/warm-sector environment across parts of
OH/WV will be characterized in lower elevations by surface dew
points 60s F, underlying 700-500-mb lapse rates 7.5-8.5 deg C/km.
While the lapse rates will diminish with southeastward extent, the
air mass will remain favorably unstable/buoyant to support damaging-wind-producing thunderstorms riding the frontal
baroclinic/instability gradient, potentially all the way to the
Chesapeake Bay region. Width/depth of any cold-pool development
within such a complex remains uncertain; however, the increasing
potential for such upscale organization warrants a relatively
enhanced corridor of wind probabilities within the much lengthier
15%/slight area at this time.

...Southern Plains to Midwest...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in clusters are expected to
develop along the dryline and frontal zone, offering large hail and strong-severe gusts as they move eastward to southeastward. Some of
this activity may aggregate into larger/forward-propagational
multicellular complexes, with the severe threat transitioning from a
hail/wind blend to more purely wind. While relative concentrations
of hail (in western areas) and wind at 30%+ unconditional levels
probably will occur somewhere within this corridor, many of the
factors contributing to such evolution would develop from mesobeta-
to storm-scale processes that remain uncertain, undeveloped and
non-specific at this time. As such, will maintain the general
slight-risk area for now, acknowledging the potential for a node or
two of enhanced risk to become apparent within.

Elevated mixed-layer air has overspread this region for several
days, yielding a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. However,
planar analyses and cross-sections in the 850-500-mb layer indicate
the basal capping layer of the EML should not be as strong for
preconvective MLCINH as in previous days. A swath of preconvective
MLCAPE 3500-4500 J/kg is expected to develop over much of OK, with
values at least briefly exceeding 3000 J/kg elsewhere from
central/western MO to the Rio Grande Valley of southwest TX.
1500-2000 J/kg values are possible farther east and northeast across
the Corn Belt, associated with somewhat weaker CINH and smaller
lapse rates characterizing less-pristine EML trajectories.

Given these factors, development in general may occur somewhat
sooner in the diabatic-heating cycle, and become more dense in
ultimate concentration, with greater longevity and farther downshear
spread before weakening. Weak low/middle-level flow and lack of
more robust vertical shear should contribute to predominant
multicellular organization. A combination of spreading outflow and
diabatic cooling of the moist sector's boundary layer will adversely
reduce available instability tonight and lead to general weakening.

...Eastern CO and vicinity...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon over the higher terrain of the eastern mountains/
foothills, where diabatic heating and orographic lift will weaken
MLCINH fastest. Activity should pose a risk if isolated severe
hail/gusts as it moves into the adjoining High Plains, and a tornado
cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient
near-surface moistening and diabatic destabilization to support
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Easterly boundary-layer flow components
northwest of the surface low will support strong-severe convective
potential over this area via upslope lift, moisture advection/
transport, relatively maximized storm-relative low-level flow, and
vector augmentation of deep shear. Although low-level flow will be
weak -- limiting hodograph size and magnitude of low-level bulk
shear -- strong directional shear and the potential for storm-scale/
boundary interactions indicates potential for at least short-lived
supercell mode, with non-negligible tornado potential.

...Southeast/east-central FL...
Surface data and available RAOBs/VWP indicate a narrow corridor of
favorable conditions for short-lived supercells and threat for a
brief tornado or two from any sustained convection, for at least
another few hours. This potential is related to a coast-parallel
onshore convergence zone located just inland that may shift northward/northwestward through the remainder of the morning. West
of that boundary, backed flow maximizes effective SRH, and east of
it resides a relatively undisturbed Gulf Stream air mass maximizing
theta-e and CAPE. The scenario loosely resembles a buoyancy/shear
overlap archetype in marginal tropical cyclones, with more
localized/transient risk, given the weaker ambient flow
characterizing this nontropical system. See NHC forecast
discussions for more information on potential for eventual
subtropical or tropical development with the Gulf low.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 05/14/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 250107
SWODY1
SPC AC 250106

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms capable of severe gusts
and large hail are expected from the south-central High Plains
northeastward into Iowa/southwest Minnesota. Isolated severe storms
will also pose a severe wind and hail threat from Arkansas eastward
through the Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
One or two linear complexes are expected to evolve across the
central and southern Plains through the overnight hours.
Occasional/sporadic damaging wind gusts are also possible with a
convective complex over Arkansas and vicinity and also with isolated storms/clusters from the Mid-South eastward to the Carolinas and
East Coast.

...Central and Southern Plains region...
A complicated forecast scenario exists across this region in the
wake of substantial overturning from a convective complex currently
over Arkansas. Airmass recovery is expected in portions of the
region - especially across the Panhandles and far western Oklahoma
due to increasing southerly low-level flow beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates. With time, ongoing convection (aided by an approaching
mid-level disturbance over Colorado) will continue to grow upscale
into linear segments capable of continued damaging wind gusts and
hail. More cellular convection may pose a risk for large hail and
perhaps a tornado or two in the Texas Panhandle and vicinity as
vertical shear profiles support updraft rotation. Storms should
migrate into central Kansas/Oklahoma near the I-35 corridor
overnight, and any severe threat should lessen with eastward extent
into these areas given prior overturning and stabilization.

...Arkansas and the Mid-South...
Isolated severe wind gusts will remain possible with a linear
complex now traversing central/southwest Arkansas. Moderate to
strong buoyancy and appreciable deep shear profiles will sustain
this severe threat for the next few hours, although an overall
decrease in intensity should be noted overnight in tandem with
low-level destabilization.

...Kentucky and Tennessee...
Convection across western Kentucky and Tennessee will pose an
isolated severe hail/wind threat. Given the cellular nature of the
storms and interaction with low-level boundaries across the region,
it is not out of the question for a few storms to rotate and perhaps
pose a brief tornado threat - especially with any activity that can
be rooted near the surface.

...Georgia eastward to the NC Outer Banks...
Scattered clusters of storms continue to forward propagate across
the region and pose a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts into
the evening. This threat will wane over the next few hours due to a stabilizing boundary layer and tendency for storms to propagate
offshore.

..Cook.. 06/25/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 160120
SWODY1
SPC AC 160118

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0818 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN OREGON...AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...

CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN WYOMING

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible this evening across a
broad portion of the U.S., including parts of the northeast
California/southern Oregon/northwest Nevada area.

...Northeast California/southern Oregon/northwest Nevada...
Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of northern California,
and eastward into parts of southern Oregon and northwest Nevada,
ahead of a short-wave trough just off the northern California/Oregon
coast that continues to advance slowly eastward.

Though instability remains weak -- particularly away from the
northern California portion of the area, modestly enhanced flow atop
the area -- in association with the upper system -- will continue to
support a few stronger cells, capable primarily of a locally
damaging wind gust or two over the next several hours.

...Elsewhere...
While the onset of diurnal cooling is forecast to yield a gradual
decrease in convective coverage/intensity this evening CONUS-wide, a
few stronger storms over the next couple of hours will remain
capable of briefly gusty winds and small hail.

..Goss.. 07/16/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 232038
SWODY1
SPC AC 232037

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL COLORADO...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN GENERAL THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms will be possible across southern Louisiana, and
over parts of central/eastern Colorado today. Elsewhere, strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible over parts of the Florida
Peninsula and Mid-Atlantic region, primarily this afternoon and
evening.

...20Z Update...

...Central Rockies and High Plains...
Recent observational trends validate the forecast reasoning outlined
in the previous outlook (text appended below) with no changes to the probabilities needed. More information about this area is available
in MCD 1146.

...Southeast LA...
Area of persistent surface convergence continues to support
thunderstorms across far southeast LA. Enhanced northerly flow aloft
remains over the region with the resulting vertical shear strong
enough to support organized storms. Further erosion of the
convective inhibition and continued convergence will likely support
additional thunderstorms, particularly along the immediate coast.

...NY/PA southward into the Carolinas...
Widespread cloudiness continues to temper diurnal heating and robust destabilization but the very moist airmass over the area still
supports modest destabilization. A predominately multicell mode is
expected to persist into the evening with multiple linear segments,
a few of which may produce damaging wind gusts, possible. More
short-term information is available in MCDs 1143 and 1145.

...Central FL...
Based on current trends, severe probabilities have been removed
across central FL. While a few more thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and again later overnight, threat for severe has decreased
below thresholds for delineating any threat areas.

..Mosier.. 07/23/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018/

...Central Rockies and High Plains...
A large upper ridge is centered over NM today, with the southern
fringe of stronger westerlies over parts of UT/CO. Strong heating
is occurring over the mountains of central CO, where sufficient low
level moisture is present for the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show sufficient CAPE and
effective shear for a risk of large hail in the stronger cells over
the mountains. As the storms move off the higher terrain, the
primary threat will likely transition to strong/damaging winds
before activity weakens after dark.

...Southeast LA...
A weak surface cold front continues to sag southward across LA,
separating dewpoints in the 70s to the north, from near 80F to the
south. This area is beneath rather strong northerly mid/upper level
flow, sufficient for storm organization and some severe threat. The
main complicating factor to the forecast today is the substantial
mid/high cloudiness spreading across this area, limiting heating/destabilization. Will maintain the SLGT risk for now but
confidence in a more active severe weather event is decreasing.

...NY/PA southward into the Carolinas...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today over much
of the Mid-Atlantic region, beneath a band of moderately strong
southerly mid-level winds. Several weak shortwave troughs are
evident in water vapor imagery lifting northward across the region,
which will support the development of scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. Substantial cloud cover is limiting heating and will
likely preclude a more organized severe threat. Nevertheless, the
strongest cells will be capable of gusty or locally damaging
wind gusts through the afternoon.

...Central FL...
Strong heating is occurring over central FL today, ahead of a large
convective complex over the eastern Gulf. Vertical shear is weak
across this region, but ample moisture/CAPE and boundary
interactions may result in a few intense storms with gusty/damaging
winds.

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 300935
SWODY1
SPC AC 300934

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 AM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEAST TO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITIES

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/marginally severe storms are expected from the Arklatex
to the upper Ohio Valley on Monday. Damaging winds will be the main
threat. Elsewhere, isolated strong/severe storms may develop across
the southern High Plains during the afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
As ridging aloft remains in place over the West, a slow-moving
trough/upper low is forecast to drift southeast across the
Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes. At the surface, a generally weak
pattern will prevail, though a weak -- convectively enhanced -- area
of low pressure should move from southern Plains across the
Tennessee Valley. An associated warm front should shift north
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, while a cool front progresses
southward across the southern Plains through the period.

...Eastern New Mexico vicinity...
As a convective complex shifts east-southeast across Oklahoma and
the Texas Panhandle into north Texas and the Arklatex through the
early morning hours, westward/southwestward-moving outflow is
forecast to cross the High Plains and back into the higher terrain
of central New Mexico. With east/northeast flow behind the boundary
favorable upslope-driven ascent is expected. However, questions
exist regarding degree of cloud cover on the cool side of this
boundary, and thus potential for low-level airmass recovery during
the afternoon. Farther south, recovery of the boundary layer seems
more likely, with heating likely contributing to some
destabilization across southeast New Mexico and into the adjacent
Texas South Plains/Midland Basin. However, weaker flow aloft is
progged across this area, as the southern fringe of the stronger
belt of southwesterlies expected to remain just to the north.

Overall, it appears that more widespread storms will occur over
southeast New Mexico and eastward into Texas, but likely with only
low-end severe potential. More isolated -- but more likely to be
rotating -- storms should develop over the high terrain of northeast
New Mexico, but with some likelihood that the boundary layer will
remain cool, the primary risk will be for hail. Overall therefore,
maintenance of MRGL/5% risk appears reasonable at this time, but
upgrade to a small SLGT risk -- most likely over northern portions
of the area -- may be needed if greater boundary-layer
destabilization can occur during the afternoon than is currently
expected.

...Arklatex region to the upper Ohio Valley vicinity...
An ongoing convective complex is forecast to be moving
east-southeast across eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas and the
Arklatex region during early stages of the period. Some lingering
severe risk -- primarily in the form of damaging winds -- may
accompany this system.

Storms may diminish through midday, with warm advection expected to
increase east/ahead of the system across the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys. By early afternoon, storm redevelopment ahead of remnant convection/circulation is expected in the Mississippi Delta area and
vicinity, and also as scattered cells/clusters northeastward across
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Weak lapse rates over the lower
Mississippi Valley area, and weak forcing aloft across the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys should dampen overall severe risk, but a few
stronger cells are expected within this broad zone, capable of
producing low-end severe wind/hail. As such, will maintain a broad
MRGL risk area from the Arklatex region to portions of the central Appalachians.

..Goss.. 07/30/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 101953
SWODY1
SPC AC 101951

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA...

CORRECTED FOR GREAT LAKES GENERAL THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms capable of strong winds and hail are
possible mainly across parts of central Arizona.

...Discussion...

Previous outlook remains generally on track with only minor
adjustments needed. It still appears probable that storms will
develop over the higher terrain of central to northern Arizona and
spread southwest, posing a risk for isolated downburst winds into
early evening.

..Dial.. 08/10/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018/

...Arizona Rim country this afternoon through early tonight...
A midlevel high is centered over the northern Great Basin and
northern Rockies, with northeasterly midlevel flow across the Four
Corners on the southeastern periphery of the high. In combination
with the north edge of the monsoonal moisture plume, this steering
flow will again favor storms spreading southwestward from the
plateau and Mogollon Rim this afternoon into early tonight. MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg, DCAPE near 1200 J/kg, northeasterly midlevel
winds of 25-30 kt, and anvil-level flow from the west will favor a
threat for at least isolated damaging outflow winds with any storm
clusters that form. Isolated large hail will also be possible,
primarily with storms over the high terrain where lapse rates will
be the steepest. However, storm coverage is somewhat in question
given the lack on an obvious focus for storm initiation aside from
surface heating over the higher terrain. Thus, will maintain
Marginal categorical outlook and 5% damaging wind probabilities in
this update.

...Southern Plains to the Southeast this afternoon...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely again this afternoon in a broad
swath from the southern Rockies eastward across the southern Plains
and Southeast within a moist low-midlevel environment with only weak
convective inhibition. Some clustering of storms is expected along
residual outflow boundaries and with a series of
diffuse/convectively-enhanced midlevel troughs drifting eastward
from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians. Isolated
downburst winds could cause minor tree damage, but the threat for
organized and/or more widespread damaging gusts is too low to
warrant a broad 5% wind/Marginal categorical outlook given rather
modest downdraft potential and low-midlevel flow generally 15-25 kt
or less.

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 111625
SWODY1
SPC AC 111623

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM AREA IN CA/NV

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe downburst winds will be possible over
portions of northwestern and southeastern Arizona.

A large upper ridge is present today over the central/northern
Plains states, while an upper trough affects the Great Lakes and
eastern states. Scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of
the nation, but two areas appear to have a more focused risk of a
few strong to severe storms later today.

...Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas...
Cyclonic flow around the eastern upper low extends from the
central/southern Appalachians into the Carolinas and VA/PA. Morning
visible satellite imagery shows the potential for relatively strong
heating over much of this region, where dewpoints in the 70s will
yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Mid level lapse rates
are weak and vertical shear is marginal. Nevertheless, steering
flow of 20+ knots, strong CAPE, and some dry air aloft may all
contribute to a few loosely organized multicell clusters capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts.

...Arizona...
No changes have been made to the outlook in this region. A
long-lived MCS is diminishing as it tracks westward into southeast
CA. Areas north and south of the path of this system will become
hot this afternoon with conditions favorable for a few
strong/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

..Hart.. 08/11/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 131301
SWODY1
SPC AC 131300

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 AM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND ARIZONA...

CORRECTED FOR TWO WIND POINTS

...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm winds, some marginally severe, may occur this
afternoon across parts of southwestern Maryland, DC area, Virginia
and the eastern Carolinas. Strong to severe gusts also may occur
across parts of south-central Arizona this evening.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, ridging will remain in place over the Great
Basin and east-northeastward to the northern Plains and Lake
Superior. The Plains lobe of that ridging will be eroded from the
south as a weak cut-off cyclone, now centered over southeastern CO,
drifts northeastward over western KS. A positively tilted trough
will continue to trail that low, across portions of the TX Panhandle
and eastern NM. This system will support a broad swath of general
thunderstorm potential over the central/southern Plains; however,
with weak deep-layer flow/shear, severe potential appears too
isolated and unfocused to warrant an outlook area. The same applies
over the eastern U.S. around a slow-moving cyclone that covers parts
of PA/WV, except for some relatively concentrated convective
potential over a section of the eastern Carolinas and VA discussed
below. The 500-mb circulation center should drift eastward over PA
through the period.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from southern MB
across central ND to northern WY, which will move eastward across
ND, western SD and much of northern MN through the period. A few
thunderstorms with small hail may form tonight near this front, over
parts of southeastern ND, northeastern SD and northwestern MN. A
diffuse, wavy frontal zone was evident from the coastal Mid-Atlantic
to northern GA, western MO, and the southern High Plains, generally
along the northern rim of a higher-theta-e Gulf/Atlantic air mass.
The eastern segment should remain near its current position, while
the frontal zone west of the Appalachians becomes more ill-defined
with time.

...Southwestern MD/DC/VA/Carolinas...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible, offering
the potential for damaging, isolated severe downdrafts, and over the
northern area, isolated marginally severe hail. The strongest
buoyancy should remain displaced south and east of the more
favorable mid/upper flow, though upper winds over the northern
outlook area should be strong enough to aid in ventilation with
favorable cloud-layer shear. Forecast soundings show generally weak low/middle-level winds in both areas, but very rich boundary-layer
moisture and deep buoyancy profiles near the coastal Carolinas.
Preconvective MLCAPE should reach 2000-2500 J/kg over the southern
area, with higher theta-e but weaker lapse rates aloft, and
1000-1500 J/kg over the northern area, with less moisture but colder
air and steeper lapse rates in midlevels.

...AZ...
Widely scattered convection should form today over the higher
terrain near and above the Mogollon Rim, some of which may move over
lower elevations to the southwest. Convective coverage, duration, organization, and potential for discrete/southwestward forward
propagation each should be lower than yesterday, given the weaker
nature of both midlevel northeasterlies and buoyancy. Still,
isolated damaging/severe gusts are possible from the most intense
localized outflows, given the expected well-mixed boundary layers
likely to develop over the lower deserts.

..Edwards.. 08/13/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 141411
SWODY1
SPC AC 141410

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDERSTORM GRID IN NEW ENGLAND

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
evening over parts of the north-central Rockies/High Plains region,
eastern North Carolina, as well as portions of Oklahoma and southern
Kansas.

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper-level pattern over the contiguous U.S. will be rather
disheveled through the period, with the primary belt of northern-
stream westerlies remaining over Canada. A broad cyclone now
covering the central/northern Appalachians and much of the Northeast
will move slowly northeastward while gradually weakening to an open
wave late this period or early day 2. Another cyclone -- currently
covering much of the central/southern plains with a primary
circulation center over central KS -- will move slowly east-
northeastward through the period, also becoming an open-wave trough.
By 12Z the trough should be near the KS/MO line and over eastern OK.

An embedded vorticity lobe -- now apparent in moisture-channel
imagery over the HYS/HLC area -- is forecast to dig southeastward to
northern OK this evening then pivot eastward toward the western
Ozarks. A basal shortwave trough over the northern Rockies occupies
the southwest end of a persistent/positively tilted synoptic trough
that extends to Hudson Bay. The shortwave trough will amplify
steadily as it moves east-southeastward across MT, reaching the
western Dakotas and northeastern WY by 12Z.

At the surface, a weak, wavy, quasistationary frontal zone was drawn
from the coastal Mid-Atlantic across eastern/central NC, central SC,
northern portions of GA/AL, then northwestward arching across the
STL and OMA areas as a warm front, then southwestward to a surface
low near SPD. A cold front associated with the northern-stream
synoptic trough was drawn from the James Bay region to south-central
MN, becoming quasistationary to the central High Plains.

...North-central Rockies/High Plains...
Convection evolving from an ongoing cloud/precip shield over
southeastern MT/northeastern WY may produce isolated severe hail
through early afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over higher
terrain of eastern WY and move east-southeastward to southeastward,
offering hail as well as isolated severe gusts.

Convective potential will be aided by a combination of favorable
residual moisture (surface dew points commonly 50s F), diurnal
heating south of the morning cloud/precip area, and post-frontal
upslope flow. The latter will provide enhanced storm-relative
boundary-layer winds, as well as contribute to enough veering of
flow with height to yield 40-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes.
Buoyancy will be on the marginal side, with MLCAPE reaching 800-1200
J/kg, but still sufficient to support multicells and transient
supercells moving into a favorably well-mixed boundary layer for
sporadic hail and strong-severe gusts. Activity should weaken this
evening as it moves into lower-theta-e air.

...OK/KS...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over
the outlook area, offering the potential for isolated severe
hail/gusts and a conditional, lower-end tornado risk.

Satellite imagery shows a broad clear slot across the region, over
the southern semicircle of the mid/upper cyclone. This feature is
related to a corridor of midlevel drying analyzed on last night's
00Z upper-air charts, and evident in available soundings this
morning. It should persist today, north of the southwest-northeast
plume of profuse low/middle-level moisture, cloud cover and embedded
convective precip that covers parts of north TX, southern/eastern OK
and into the Ozarks. Forecast soundings suggest that sustained
heating of a favorably moist boundary layer in that slot will offset
modest lapse rates aloft over central/northeastern OK, and act in
concert with somewhat greater lapse rates over western/northern
areas nearer the cyclone core and in a zone of DCVA aloft. The
result should be around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE.

Favorable buoyancy and low-level theta-e will be juxtaposed with a
belt of somewhat enhanced middle-level flow to aid in storm
organization. Anvil-level flow, low-level winds and hodographs each
are progged to remain modest on the meso-alpha scale. However,
localized vorticity enhancement along outflow/differential-heating
boundaries may promote short-lived development/tightening of
low-level rotation on the storm scale. As such, a marginal tornado
risk exists, as well as locally strong-severe gusts and sporadic
hail.

...Eastern NC...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon near a surface lee trough and residual frontal zone,
across the eastern Piedmont/western coastal plain. The most intense
cores may yield marginally severe hail/gusts.

The frontal zone, while losing baroclinicity, still demarcates very moisture-rich Atlantic marine air to the south from lower theta-e in
VA, beneath the southern rim of somewhat enhanced mid/upper cyclonic
flow. Low-level flow/lift along these boundaries should be weak,
but in concert with strong surface diabatic heating, still
sufficient for at least a few sustained cells to develop. By early/mid-afternoon, weak MLCINH and near-70 F surface dew points
will be in place, supporting 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE, amidst roughly
35 kt effective-shear magnitudes.

..Edwards/Peters.. 08/14/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 201632
SWODY1
SPC AC 201630

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI......

CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER GRID ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the Mid-South from
mid-afternoon to early evening. Damaging winds should be the primary
hazard, but a couple tornadoes and large hail are possible.

...Mid MS Valley...
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. An
unseasonably strong upper low is present today over MO, with a band
of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating cyclonically around
the base of the low into parts of MO/AR/IL/KY/TN. It appears that
initial convection will develop soon over south-central MO and
north-central AR, and track eastward across the ENH risk area
through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show favorable winds
aloft and sufficient CAPE for a risk of bowing line segment capable
of damaging wind gusts. Initial activity could also pose a threat
of hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Have expanded the risk areas
a little farther north into central/southern IL where
clearing/destabilization appears likely. Further details will be
available in an MCD that will be issued soon.

...Northern IL and vicinity...
Easterly surface winds over northern IL, will result in marginally
favorable hodographs for a few rotating storms later this afternoon
along and north of the warm front lifting across the region.
Widespread clouds will limit heating/destabilization, but morning
model guidance suggests the potential for a few isolated storms
capable of brief spin ups or damaging wind gusts.

...NC...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today over parts of
NC, where ample low level moisture remains. Winds in the lower
troposphere are weak, but the strongest cells will be capable of
locally gusty/damaging winds.

...Northern Great Basin...
A strong shortwave trough is moving across eastern OR and will
affect parts of ID/MT/UT/WY later today. Low level moisture is
limited, but forecast soundings suggest steep low-level lapse rates
and increasing risk of a few damaging wind gusts as the mid-level
wind max overspreads the region. Small hail will also be possible
in the higher elevations.

..Hart.. 08/20/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 011332
SWODY1
SPC AC 011331

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 AM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...AND ALSO OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...

CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms will be possible from the central/southern High
Plains and portions of South Dakota into parts of the Midwest today
into tonight.

...Central Plains into the Midwest...
Widespread convection is ongoing from the central Plains into the
Upper MS Valley. This activity should diminish in coverage and
intensity by midday as the low-level jet weakens. In its wake, an outflow-reinforced front will likely be draped somewhere from
northern KS/southern NE through southern IA into northern IL. Along
and south of the boundary, rich low-level moisture and relatively
steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong instability by
afternoon for areas where cloud cover is not too extensive, with
MLCAPE values potentially exceeding 3000 J/kg.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along
and north of the effective boundary, either via surface-based
initiation in areas where substantial heating can occur, or evolving
out of elevated convection that will remain possible through the day
due to the co-location of midlevel moisture and relatively steep
lapse rates aloft. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support some
organized storm modes, with a corresponding severe wind and hail
threat. At this time, confidence in any particular scenario is too
low for an upgrade, though the greatest relative risk appears to be
from north-central KS into southeast NE, where somewhat less
extensive cloud cover (compared to areas further east) may allow for
greater destabilization and a modest low-level jet will become
refocused into this area by early evening.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Thunderstorms are again likely across parts of eastern NM/CO. Light southeasterly low-level flow veering to modest westerly flow aloft
will result in sufficient effective shear for a few organized
multicells or perhaps a weak supercell or two, capable of isolated
large hail and/or damaging wind gusts. The isolated severe wind
threat will spread into western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles by late
afternoon, as thunderstorm clusters move into an increasingly warm
and well-mixed environment.

...Western into central SD...
A conditional severe threat will develop across portions of western
SD this afternoon, as low-level southeasterly flow advects modest
low-level moisture beneath steep lapse rates aloft. While this area
will remain largely south of the influence of a shortwave trough
moving across the southern Canadian Prairies and north of any
substantial influence from the trough over the Southwest,
heating/mixing in the vicinity of the Black Hills may be sufficient
to support thunderstorm development. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and
effective shear of 25-35 kt will support a risk of organized
multicells or weak supercell structures with an accompanying threat
of large hail and severe wind gusts. Later tonight, increasingly
elevated convection will likely spread into central/northern SD,
with some hail potential.

..Dean/Edwards.. 09/01/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 171413
SWODY1
SPC AC 171412

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 AM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT AND UPPER MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/TEXAS

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms may occur across parts of the Upper Midwest
today through this evening. The threat for a brief tornado or two
exists for parts of the central Appalachians and Piedmont region.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a general westerly to southwesterly pattern is
forecast to prevail over most of the western and northern CONUS, in
advance of phased shortwave troughs now evident in moisture-channel
imagery offshore from the Pacific coast. The mid/upper-level low
and accompanying broad shortwave trough associated with the remnants
of Florence are forecast to pivot east-northeastward across the
central Appalachians and weaken through the period.

Meanwhile, a northern-stream shortwave trough -- currently located
over the Canadian Rockies and northwestern MT -- is forecast to move east-northeastward to southern SK by 00Z, and the central/southern
portion of the MB/ON border by 12Z. To its southeast, a weak
shortwave trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from south-
central WY northeastward toward the northwestern corner of SD. This
feature is expected to eject east-northeastward to southern MN
through 00Z and across parts of the upper Great Lakes overnight,
likely with some convective vorticity enhancement.

At the surface, a wavy cold front was analyzed from the James Bay
region southwestward across Lake Superior, northwestern WI,
southeastern SD, to northern NE, becoming a warm front from there
into a hybrid frontal-wave/lee-side low in the GCC-CPR area. By 00Z
the front should move southeastward/southward to northern Lower MI,
northern IA, and northeastern NE, then quasistationary westward into
eastern WY. By 12Z the cold front should reach Lakes Erie/Ontario,
northern IN, northern IL, to a weak wave over northwestern IA, then southwestward toward the northeastern corner of CO.

...Central Appalachians/Piedmont...
A somewhat diffusely focused potential remains for a tornado or two
through the period across the outlook area, initially near the NC/VA
border then evolving northward with time, as the remnants of
Florance continue to decay. A combination of low-level theta-e
advection and intermittent diabatic heating under cloud breaks --
each without as much restriction by precip/convective shields as
prior days -- will destabilize the air mass across parts of this
area through late afternoon. The net effect should be development/
northward spread of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE over much of central/
western VA, 500-1000 J/kg in northern VA, and 1500-2000 J/kg over
central NC.

Vertical shear is expected to decrease with southward extent at any
given time, and overall with time. Hodographs are progged to remain well-curved in low levels with at least marginally favorable SRH.
However both hodographs and low-level shear vectors are expected to
shrink through the day and evening across much of the eastern
semicircle of the remnant vortex, in keeping with veering and
related weakening of the easterly component of surface winds. That
veering also will lessen convergence, somewhat offsetting the spread
of greater instability into the region in terms of convective coverage/maintenance. That process, along with some veer/back/veer
profiles in midlevels, should contribute to only short-lived
potential for discrete supercells, with dominant quasi-linear and messy/clustered convective modes. These various counterbalancing
factors impart enough conditionality to tornado potential to
maintain a marginal categorical risk, albeit enlarged since the
previous outlook.

...Upper Midwest...
Widely scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms are ongoing
across portions of northern SD, in a plume of large-scale ascent
related mainly to low-level warm advection, and somewhat to DCVA,
each preceding the WY/western SD shortwave trough. Widely scattered
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move across southern NM
into adjoining northern IA and southwestern WI this afternoon and
this evening, as the plume of vertical motion shifts eastward and
encounters a combination of
1. Progressively greater low-level moisture initially north of the
surface front, and
2. Frontal lift above the surface.

Convection should progress faster than the surface front, with the
potential for sporadic hail to its north and a hail/wind combined
threat near and southeast of the boundary. Forecast soundings
suggest 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE north of the front this afternoon,
with effective-shear magnitudes increasing into the 40-50-kt range
as the height gradient aloft tightens and strengthens mid/upper wind
profiles. South of the front, flow and low-level shear each will be
weak (10 kt or less) below the 700 mb. However, a narrow prefrontal
corridor of weakly capped MLCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, near
the surface moist axis, will support potential for convection to be
maintained a short distance into the warm sector before weakening.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 09/17/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 182005
SWODY1
SPC AC 182003

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail is possible this afternoon from eastern Nebraska
into Iowa, and tonight from South Dakota into Iowa.

...Northern Plains...
Changes to this outlook include adding a 5% severe hail probability
across much of South Dakota for storms later this evening and
overnight. Strong upper flow will increase further tonight, while
maintaining cool temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, low-level warm
advection will increase with a moist air mass spreading north.
Sufficient elevated instability will be present to support a few
strong storms, and long hodographs may favor a few hail cores
capable of severe hail.

..Jewell.. 09/18/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018/

...NE/IA/IL...
A persistent cluster of thunderstorms is affecting much of northern
IA and adjacent regions this morning, with the leading-edge outflow
surging southward across eastern IA. Much of this region has been
stabilized by the convection, leaving a corridor from eastern NE
into northwest IL where sufficient heating is possible later today.
This axis may see storm intensification by mid/late afternoon, with
the strongest cells capable of hail or locally damaging wind gusts.
Present indications are that the severe risk will remain isolated
and marginal in nature.

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 091727
SWODY1
SPC AC 091725

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST MO TO
CENTRAL IA...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes and isolated to scattered damaging winds are expected from
parts of Texas to Iowa, mainly through about 9 PM CDT. The most
likely area for multiple tornadoes is from northwest Missouri to
central Iowa.

...TX to IA...
Have upgraded to Enhanced Risk for tornadoes across parts from
northwest MO to central IA.

Shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will move
north-northeast into the central Great Plains through tonight.
Attendant 1003-mb surface cyclone near the central OK/KS border
should deepen slightly as it tracks toward the Omaha vicinity by
evening. An extensive QLCS is ongoing in an arc from eastern OK into north-central TX and then through central TX. The surging portion of
the line will generally track east towards the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex
regions with trailing portion more slowly progressing east across
much of eastern/southern TX this afternoon. In addition, more
discrete convection should develop from the Lower MO Valley towards
the Upper MS Valley during the late afternoon.

The swath of stronger low-level flow will shift northeast from KS/OK
towards IA/MO in conjunction with the ejecting trough and surface
cyclone. This should correspondingly result in enlarged low-level
hodographs overspreading the western periphery of moderate
boundary-layer heating underway across central/eastern MO into
eastern IA. This scenario may result in multiple, discrete tornadic
supercells developing from northwest MO across central IA around
peak heating.

Otherwise, with southern extent, richer boundary-layer moisture
should compensate for more modest/slightly weakening deep-layer wind
profiles and maintain risks for damaging winds and a couple brief
tornadoes. These threats should wane during the evening as
larger-scale ascent becomes further divorced from lingering
convection in the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.

...FL...
Hurricane Michael is forecast to begin approaching the coast of the
FL Panhandle early Wednesday, with models showing strengthening low
level wind fields and some tornado risk in the pre-dawn hours. While
the primary risk is expected to occur on Wednesday, a marginal risk
for a tornado or two may reach a portion of the FL Panhandle and
adjacent coastal waters by 12Z.

..Grams/Squitieri.. 10/09/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 161628
SWODY1
SPC AC 161627

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAROLINAS...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds are possible across parts of the Carolinas
this evening.

...Carolinas...
Have added a Marginal Risk given increased confidence in a few
mid-level rotating storms this evening.

Despite neutral mid-level height change, convergence along a
quasi-stationary front may strengthen during the late afternoon and
evening. As surface temperatures warm through the 80s within the
warm sector amid weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
should develop. A few storms may form between 22-00Z near the
upstate NC/SC border area as a diffuse mid/upper-level speed max
moves from MS toward the Carolinas. Deep-layer vertical shear will
be favorable for mid-level rotation, but the overall storm intensity
should be limited by the modest combination of lapse rates/low-level
winds along and south of the front. Given the increased CAM signal
for scattered convection near the boundary, locally strong wind
gusts might yield tree damage and thus have added a corridor of
damaging wind probabilities.

..Grams/Bentley.. 10/16/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 262044
SWODY1
SPC AC 262042

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Fri Oct 26 2018

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NC...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds are possible across coastal South Carolina
this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms capable of all
hazards are possible tonight across eastern North Carolina to the
southern Delmarva.

...Discussion...

Severe threat appears to be decreasing across the FL Peninsula as
low-level flow is gradually veering ahead of the primary cold front.
Weak convection, with an isolated lightning strike or two, will
likely shift off the Atlantic Coast in the next few hours.

Farther north, latest model guidance suggests boundary-layer air
mass will struggle to moisten/destabilize across the Delmarva region
later tonight. Forecast soundings depict surface-based instability
no farther north than the NC/VA border, and this would primarily be
after 09z. For these reasons have lowered severe probs across
portions of the Delmarva.

..Darrow.. 10/26/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Fri Oct 26 2018/

...North FL to Delmarva...
A shortwave trough over southern IL will gradually move east along
the OH Valley through early Saturday. A surface cyclone over
southern GA will track along a pronounced baroclinic zone into
coastal SC, before pivoting north-northeast towards the Delmarva
Peninsula. Despite deepening of the cyclone, substantial warm/dry
air between 700-500 mb as sampled by 12Z soundings over the Deep
South will overspread much of the confined warm sector. In addition, boundary-layer heating within the warm sector will be limited by
extensive cloud coverage. The net result should be a distinct lack
of substantial storm development in what otherwise would be a
favorable CAPE/shear environment for severe storms.

This afternoon into early evening, locally strong wind gusts might
accompany a few storms that can develop across north FL to coastal
SC given pockets of surface temperatures into the upper 70s on the
periphery of strengthening mid-level southwesterlies. Tonight, the
bulk of storm development will remain across the Gulf Stream, but a
couple storms might form across eastern NC just prior to the
warm/dry air aloft completely stifling deep convection. Wind
profiles here will support a potential discrete supercell capable of
all hazards. An isolated severe threat may extend farther north into
the Delmarva given the expected track of the surface cyclone per 12Z
guidance, however weak low-level lapse rates may curtail
surface-based discrete supercell development.

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 030116
SWODY1
SPC AC 030115

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST STATES TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...

CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN FLORIDA

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible this
evening and into the overnight hours, particularly from eastern
Virginia into parts of southeast Pennsylvania/New Jersey.

...Discussion...
A potent short-wave trough now crossing the Ohio/Tennessee River
Valleys will continue to assume increasingly negative tilt as it
heads toward the Mid-Atlantic region. As this occurs, ascent --
focused near the surface cold front crossing the East Coast states
-- will increase through the evening. Combined with favorably
strong/veering flow with height, some severe risk remains evident
across the area. However, with significant thermodynamic
deficiencies observed, convection along the boundary has remained
low-topped -- and in fact no lightning has been observed over inland
portions of the East Coast states.

Still, with such a strongly dynamic system approaching, risk for
locally damaging winds and even a brief tornado or two persists --
and at least limited risk is expected to linger through much of the
overnight hours, even in the absence of lightning-producing
updrafts.

Severe potential appears maximized -- in a relative sense -- over
the northeastern Maryland/southeastern Pennsylvania/northern
Delaware/western New Jersey area. In this area, one cell now over Carroll/Baltimore County Maryland/moving northeast toward York
County Pennsylvania has maintained some low-level rotation over the
past half hour or so. Should additional storm organization become
apparent, forecast adjustments may be required, but at this time it
appears most likely that convection will remain largely
disorganized, and then MRGL risk appears to remain the most
appropriate forecast at this time.

..Goss.. 11/03/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 131309
SWODY1
SPC AC 131307

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Ark-La-Tex region into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf
Coast vicinity today and tonight. Severe hail and gusty winds should
be the main threat in parts of east/northeast Texas late this
afternoon and evening.

...North Texas/ArkLaTex/Sabine River Valley...
A shortwave trough will continue to steadily dig southeastward today
over TX with the exit region of an upper jet expected to overspread
north TX and the broader ArkLaTex region by late this
afternoon/early evening. In the wake of showers/thunderstorms this
morning, modest destabilization should occur near a surface low and
adjacent frontal zone across the eastern part of North Texas and
east-central TX, although there still remains uncertainty regarding
the degree of destabilization that will develop across this region.

As mid-level lapse rates steepen and diurnal heating occurs,
forecast soundings from the NAM/RAP suggest as much as 1000-1250
J/kg MLCAPE will develop in a narrow corridor arcing around the
eastern periphery of the surface cyclone by 20-21Z. The strong
forcing associated with the mid-level jet and a cold front attendant
to the surface low will likely initiate isolated to widely scattered
convection by late afternoon in parts of north/east TX. Although not
much veering of the south-southwesterly winds with height is
forecast, they will strengthen considerably through the troposphere.
Long, nearly straight hodographs at mid levels suggest the
possibility of isolated severe hail with a few supercells as the
main threat, although strong/gusty winds could also occur. A tornado
may also be possible, especially just to east/northeast of the
surface low where low-level winds should be locally backed.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Showers/scattered thunderstorms are occurring early this morning
from the western Gulf of Mexico northeastward into western LA.
Moisture-rich maritime air will largely remain offshore with the
strongest storms similarly remaining offshore over the open waters
of the Gulf of Mexico. However, warm/moist advection ahead of the
upstream shortwave trough will allow for some northward flux toward
inland areas later today, such that some strong/severe-storm risk
from near-surface-based storms could develop into coastal areas of
southeast LA and southern MS/AL toward the FL Peninsula this
afternoon through tonight.

..Guyer/Goss.. 12/13/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 141308
SWODY1
SPC AC 141307

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
western/north-central Florida Peninsula through the afternoon and
evening, and possibly across southeastern Georgia and the coastal
Carolinas tonight. Locally damaging winds should be the main threat.

...Northern/Central Florida...
A closed low-latitude upper low will continue to spread eastward
from east TX toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and broader Gulf
Coast region through tonight. Multiple extensive
northeast/southwest-oriented bands of convection are ongoing this
morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in advance of an
eastward-moving cold front. A warm/moist conveyor ahead of the front
will maintain persistent scattered thunderstorms while a gradual
moistening of the boundary layer occurs.

Prevalent ongoing convection over much of northern FL should
effectively limit the northward extent of appreciable
destabilization, and thus, the potential for surface-based severe
storms. This suggests that west-central/north-central portions of
the FL Peninsula should have the most probable severe risk today,
which could continue into this evening. Deep-layer shear will
increase to around 35-45 kt across this region by the afternoon,
which will support continued organization of inland-spreading
convection into the western/north-central FL Peninsula. Isolated
strong to damaging winds will likely be the primary threat given the
linear storm mode. A tornado could also occur with circulations
embedded within the line as strong flow in the 0-3 km layer supports
enlarged low-level hodographs.

...Coastal Georgia to Eastern Carolinas...
Strengthening southerly low-level winds by this evening will
transport greater low-level moisture over the coastal Carolinas,
where the potential for near-surface-based thunderstorms may
increase along the immediate coast as surface dewpoints reach the
mid to perhaps upper 60s. Some threat for isolated strong/gusty
winds and perhaps a tornado may exist tonight into early Saturday
morning near the coast associated with the low-level jet and
increased low-level shear.

...Mid-South into MS/AL...
While a couple of strong storms may persist across southern AR early
today, storm intensity should wane this morning as instability is
exhausted in vicinity of the upper low and occlusion.

Farther east into AL, stronger mid/upper-level winds are forecast
this afternoon, and a pocket of weak instability (MLCAPE around 500
J/kg) may develop amidst surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower
60s ahead of a cold front. While a strong low-topped storm could
occur across southern AL this afternoon, the overall severe
potential currently appears low.

..Guyer/Goss.. 12/14/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 300533
SWODY1
SPC AC 300531

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Sat Dec 29 2018

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER ON NDFD GRID

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight in parts
of the southern Plains and Southeast. No severe weather is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
West to southwest anticyclonic mid-level flow will be present today
from the southern Plains into the Southeast. At the surface, a moist
airmass will in place across much of the Gulf of Mexico extending
northward into the central and eastern Gulf Coastal areas. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible today on the northern edge
of the moist airmass in parts of the Southeast. An upper-level
trough will move into western areas of the southern Plains tonight.
In response, a 50 to 60 kt low-level jet will strengthen along the
Texas Coastal Plain and move northeastward into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development may take place near the
low-level jet tonight. Instability is forecast to remain relatively
weak from the southern Plains into the Southeast which will limit
any severe potential.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 12/30/2018

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 131710
SWODY1
SPC AC 131709

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Sun Jan 13 2019

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through early Monday.

...NC Outer Banks...
Elevated convection within the warm conveyor has failed to
sufficiently deepen for lightning discharge thus far this morning.
12Z observed soundings sampled minimal buoyancy and modest mid-level
lapse rates. Nevertheless, potential still exists through about 2 pm
EST for a brief thunderstorm to develop before the warm conveyor
shifts fully offshore.

..Grams/Squitieri.. 01/13/2019

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 241308
SWODY1
SPC AC 241307

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CST Thu Jan 24 2019

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

CORRECTED WORDING

...SUMMARY...
The potential for damaging wind gusts along with some tornado risk
will exist this morning across the central/southern Florida
Peninsula as well as coastal North Carolina.

...Central/southern Florida Peninsula...
A broken convective line continues to make a steady eastward
progression across the south-central/east-central FL Peninsula as of
8AM EST/13Z, with a few semi-discrete line-preceding storms
including at least one supercell with a modestly unstable/highly
sheared environment. Low-level moistening continues to occur ahead
of these storms, and ample deep-layer shear along with a strong (50+
kt) low-level jet continues to support organized storm modes
including the potential for low-level mesocyclones. Latest thinking
is that overall storm event coverage/intensity has probably peaked
in the predawn hours, but at least some potential for isolated
damaging winds and/or a tornado will continue this morning across
the east-central/south-central Peninsula prior to the front moving
offshore.

...Eastern North Carolina...
An intense (80+ kt) low-level jet will continue to develop through
eastern NC and eastern VA, aiding the advection of low 60s F
near-surface dewpoints inland this morning. Although the strongest
storms are likely to remain offshore, the potential exists for a
low-topped pre-frontal band of convection to intensify along coastal
areas this morning. If so, any of the sustained
updrafts/thunderstorms may pose some risk for damaging wind gusts
given 60+ kt winds just off the surface that could be transported
downward within the stronger convective elements. Activity should
move offshore by late morning.

...Coastal Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States...
Regional 12Z soundings upstream sample extremely strong
southwesterly winds through a deep layer, with various forecast
guidance indicating that winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL may
reach 80-100 kt along the coast today. This may be coincident with a thin/low-topped strongly forced convective line near the steadily
deepening surface low and east/northeastward-advancing cold front. A
sliver of elevated instability could support a few thunderstorms,
particularly for immediate coastal and offshore areas. Even with the
very strong winds, essentially all available forecast soundings
suggest that inland areas will be influenced by a shallow stable
layer at the ground, which should limit the to-ground potential for
further convective enhancement to otherwise very strong gradient
winds.

..Guyer/Peters.. 01/24/2019

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 061315
SWODY1
SPC AC 061314

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN OK/NORTH
TX TO WESTERN KY/TN...

CORRECTED FOR DAY OF THE WEEK

...SUMMARY...
Episodic severe storms will be possible from parts of the southern
Great Plains into the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, mainly from
late afternoon through tonight.

...Southern Great Plains to TN/Lower OH Valleys...
A messy, relatively low confidence scenario for severe storms is
apparent this afternoon through tonight, resulting in maintenance of
risk area shape but with an overall southward shift. Have decreased
wind/tor probabilities across the northern portion of the risk areas
where the polar air mass is likely to remain entrenched. Have
increased hail probabilities in magnitude and spatially given the
expectation of at least a few supercells this afternoon/evening and
for the incipient stage of storm development tonight in the southern
Great Plains.

The surface front has remained nearly stationary in an arc across
northwest TX and far southeast OK, with the portion across AR/MO
still sinking south with weak cold advection behind it. This
boundary should fully stall by midday with some drift back to the
northwest as cyclogenesis occurs in the lee of the southern Rockies.
A series of cyclones should develop southeast along the front across
the TX Panhandle into far south-central OK through tonight, before consolidating near the AR/MO border by 12Z Thursday.

Isentropic ascent/warm advection near the boundary along with weak boundary-layer heating of a warm sector characterized by mid 60s
surface dew points should promote scattered thunderstorms along and
north of the front through early evening in an arc from southeast OK
to TN/KY. While elongated hodographs should support a few embedded
supercell structures later today, seasonably modest low-level winds
and mid-level lapse rates may curtail a more robust tornado and
severe threat.

Along the western portion of the warm sector in central TX to far
south-central OK, the 10Z HRRR is an outlier with the depiction of
intense supercell development near/north of the triple-point region
along the Red River. This scenario while seemingly unlikely is
possible given strengthening convergence associated with
cyclogenesis. Should this occur and a discrete cell or two are able
to deviate along the boundary, wind profiles would be highly
favorable for a large hail and tornado threat. While other CAMs do
not support this scenario, as mid-level height falls finally begin
to overspread the region, scattered convection should develop
generally on the cool side of the boundary in OK tonight and
eventually southward along the developing cold front/remnant dryline
into north-central TX. Clusters evolving into broader line segments
appear probable overnight as forcing for ascent intensifies, but a
strong cap should largely inhibit open warm-sector storm
development. In addition, the southern extent of storms should
struggle given the track of the shortwave trough from the southern
Rockies towards the MO Valley. Still, strengthening low/deep-layer
shear could sustain an isolated severe risk overnight.

..Grams/Smith.. 02/06/2019

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 201408
SWODY1
SPC AC 201407

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

CORRECTED FOR TORNADO LINE

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through early afternoon
from southeastern Louisiana across southern Mississippi and
southwestern Alabama.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a longwave trough will persist over the western
CONUS through the period, but with geometric adjustments on smaller
(synoptic to subsynoptic) scales. A weak cyclone now centered over
WY will pivot/re-develop eastward across the northern Plains.
Meanwhile, a basal shortwave trough -- initially located over the
central Plains and southern High Plains -- will eject northeastward,
reaching portions of MN, WI and Lake Michigan by 00Z. Thereafter,
that perturbation and the cyclone will merge, with the combined
trough weakening and ejecting across the upper Great Lakes. An
upstream shortwave trough -- now apparent in moisture-channel
imagery over the interior Pacific Northwest -- will dig south-
southeastward and amplify, reaching coastal central/southern CA by
12Z.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a weak low over west-central MS,
with cold front southwestward across portions of south-central/
southwestern LA and the northwestern Gulf. A marine/warm front was
drawn from the low southeastward across southeastern MS to Gulf
waters about 60 nm south of MOB, then east-southeastward to central
FL. The low should migrate erratically eastward across central AL
through the period, likely weakening further as the already-distant
upper support moves away. The cold front will proceed eastward to
western AL, southeastern MS, and southeastern LA by around 00Z,
reaching northern GA and south-central AL by 12Z. The front should
become quasistationary farther southwest tonight, across
southeastern LA and the northwestern Gulf. The warm front will move
slowly northeastward over AL and the western FL Panhandle through
afternoon, gradually losing definition thereafter as its vertical
slope gets shallower and baroclinicity weakens.

...Southeastern LA to southwestern AL...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk of
damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two into early afternoon, as
loosely organized convective bands shift eastward across the area,
with embedded elements moving northeastward. For details on the
near-term threat, refer to SPC mesoscale discussion 114.

Ahead of the western longwave trough, a broad fetch of southwesterly
flow will persist over the area, with neutral height tendencies
(isallohypses near zero). This will maintain favorable deep/speed
shear and moisture transport across the region, but amidst little or
no mid/upper-level forcing for ascent. As such, supportive lift
must arise from near-frontal boundary-layer processes, both
kinematic (convergence) and thermodynamic (boundary-layer warm
advection and weak diabatic heating). Very gradual deepening and
increasing coverage of convection has been noted overnight across
the eastern LA/southwestern MS region. This is consistent with the
slow rising and weakening of a previously intense midlevel inversion
noted in perusing soundings from 00Z, 06Z (VORTEX-SE support set),
an 09Z ULM launch at Breaux Bridge near LFT, and available 12Z
RAOBs.

The shallow near-surface stable layer and the 650-700-mb inversion
evident in the 12Z LIX sounding, for example, and each should weaken
the remainder of this morning amidst the aforementioned frontal/
thermodynamic lift. Both the stable layers were less-prominent
farther inland near JAN, amidst 400-500 effective SRH and 65-kt
effective-shear vectors. Given these trends, a relative peak in
convective intensity is forecast the next 3-6 hours, after which the
threat should diminish as overall deep-layer lift weakens and
low-level shear diminishes.

..Edwards.. 02/20/2019

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 250601
SWODY1
SPC AC 250600

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
AL AND GA...

CORRECTED FOR HAIL PROBABILITIES

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of Alabama
into western Georgia Monday afternoon into early evening. Hail is
the primary risk.

...Gulf States...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts two distinct short-wave
troughs upstream of the Gulf States. One feature is digging
southeast along the IL/MO border while the lower-latitude short wave
is approaching the Arklatex. Deep convection is noted ahead of these
features at 0530z from northeast TX into western KY. Latest model
guidance suggests this activity will propagate southeast and weaken
by sunrise along a corridor from middle TN into central LA.
Boundary-layer moisture has been slow to recover across the central
Gulf States and this early-day convection is expected to remain weak
before spreading into northern GA. Redevelopment is expected along a
pronounced front later in the afternoon. If sufficient low-level
heating can materialize in the wake of this weak convection/debris,
isolated surface-based thunderstorms should materialize within a
veered boundary-layer flow regime ahead of the wind shift.
Convective temperatures are expected to be breached as temperatures
warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Forecast soundings suggest
deep-layer shear will support supercell development and large hail
is the primary risk with convection that evolves within favorably
forced region of upper trough. This activity is expected to spread
into portions of GA during the late afternoon.

South of the mid-level jet, along the trailing cold front,
negligible large-scale forcing/weak low-level convergence will be
noted along the wind shift into the upper TX Coast region. It's not
entirely clear how much convection will evolve along the front
across southern LA west to the upper TX Coast, but boundary-layer
heating and favorable buoyancy should be adequate for a few storms.
Forecast soundings suggest supercell structures are possible and
hail is the primary concern.

..Darrow/Nauslar.. 03/25/2019

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 142031
SWODY1
SPC AC 142029

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

CORRECTED FOR SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES IN NORTH GEORGIA

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible over a large portion of the
eastern U.S. through tonight. The most likely area for tornadoes is
across the Upper Ohio Valley through 8 PM EDT. Scattered damaging
winds are also expected from this region east into the Mid-Atlantic
States overnight.

...Discussion...
The only changes made to the prior outlook include the following:
1) Removal of severe probabilities west of the active squall line
over GA/FL and to the west of the front/psuedo-dryline over the TN
Valley.
2) Reduced tornado probabilities for areas over the southern
Appalachians located to the north of the an earlier-day MCS over
north GA. The 5-percent tornado boundary over this region is based
on surface analysis where richer low-level moisture resides in
tandem with where effective boundaries, and large-scale ascent are
focusing thunderstorm development (primarily to the north-northeast
of the notable mid-level dry intrusion in the TN Valley depicted by
water vapor imagery as of mid afternoon).
3) Reduced tornado probabilities from 10-percent to 5-percent over
portions of the Upper OH Valley. Supercells will continue to
develop this afternoon and pose a risk for tornadoes in the stronger
storms. However, less rich moisture than previously thought is
resulting in a slightly less favorable mesoscale environment due to moisture/buoyancy characteristics. More specifically, mid afternoon
surface observations have shown dewpoints mix into the 57-61 degree
F range as temperatures warm into the 75-80 degree F range.

..Smith.. 04/14/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019/

...Eastern CONUS...
Several corridors of severe storms are anticipated to evolve within
a broad swath of a generally low-CAPE/high-shear environment.
Enhanced Slight risk was reoriented for the most probable zones of
severe storms through tonight.

Ongoing QLCS and clusters from western GA into the eastern FL
Panhandle will continue to pose a near-term threat for embedded
brief tornadoes and damaging winds amid strong low-level shear. Some
of this activity (namely the west-central GA) may persist through
the afternoon and further develop northeast toward the Carolina
Piedmont. A broad downstream cirrus canopy will slow boundary-layer
heating and weak mid-level lapse rates will further curtail
instability. But the damaging wind/tornado threat should continue
amid a 50-60 kt low-level jet.

Farther north, substantial insolation is underway across most of the
OH and TN Valleys in between the remnant convective swath over the
Appalachians and surface cyclone/cold front to the west. The deep
cyclone across southwest IN will track northeast towards the Lower
Great Lakes with its attendant north/south-oriented cold front
pushing east towards the Appalachians. The robust boundary-layer
heating should support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg amid upper 50s to low
60s dew points. Initial thunderstorms have already formed near the
surface cyclone and additional development is anticipated through
the afternoon across the OH Valley. Surface winds should hold south-southeasterly just ahead of the low. This should yield
enlargement of low-level hodographs coupled with 60+ kt effective
shear to support a corridor of enhanced tornado risk centered on the
Upper OH Valley during the late afternoon/early evening.

By this evening, convective clusters should organize into a broader
QLCS that shifts towards the Appalachians. Remnants of this plus
further development are anticipated to the lee of the Appalachians
from PA to VA tonight, as a secondary vorticity maximum pivots
through the base of the amplified shortwave trough. Presence of mid
to upper 60s surface dew points and lack of pronounced
boundary-layer cooling should yield an environment supportive of
bowing lines with embedded supercell structures. These will be
capable of damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes through the
early morning.

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 150356
SWODY1
SPC AC 150355

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...MOST OF PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW
JERSEY...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NORTHEAST VIRGINIA...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible tonight
across the Mid-Atlantic States.

...Discussion...
Expansive upper trough continues to move across the eastern CONUS,
interacting with a modestly moist and unstable air mass ahead of it
to provoke scattered thunderstorm development from Lake Erie
southward into GA. Numerous watches, both Severe Thunderstorm and
Tornado, are in effect to cover this threat. Most significant
changes to the outlook have been made on the western edge, where the
outlook was trimmed based on the position the surface trough.

Southern portion of the organized line extending from far western NY
through WV is beginning to show signs of better organization and
stronger updrafts. The northern portion near the NY/PA border
remains fairly strong while storms along the line just south (across
western PA) have struggled to maintain intensity. Expectation is for
this entire line to gradually strengthen as the upper trough
continues eastward and the associated height falls spread across the
region.

Additionally, an increase in storms is anticipated from central
South Carolina through central North Carolina and into south-central
Virginia as the low-level jet increases. This initially cellular
activity could pose a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado
or two.

..Mosier.. 04/15/2019

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 181304
SWODY1
SPC AC 181302

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

CORRECTED FOR 5% WIND POINT

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts, a few tornadoes
(possibly strong), and isolated large hail today across the lower
Mississippi Valley through the central Gulf Coast region.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a synoptic-scale trough will proceed from MN
and the central/southern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes and
lower/mid Mississippi Valley through the period. The two most
important associated smaller-scale perturbations for convective
purposes will be:
1. An initially strong, basal shortwave trough -- now evident in moisture-channel imagery over western/central OK and west-central
TX. This feature is forecast to pivot eastward then northeastward
while losing amplitude, and to reach portions of AR, northern LA and
southeast TX by 00Z. This feature will eject northeastward toward
the Ohio Valley and weaken markedly overnight.
2. An upstream trough and associated speed max in northwesterly
flow -- currently apparent over the northern High Plains. Its
leading portion will dig southeastward across KS/OK by 00Z, then
become the new strong/basal shortwave trough over LA by 12Z.

At the surface, beneath height falls related to the features aloft,
a surface low should form along a cold front over northeast TX or
the Arklatex region and shift erratically to the Mid-South region by
00Z, perhaps catching up to the preconvective warm sector this
afternoon. The cold front was analyzed at 11Z in a convectively
modified air mass across the MO/northwest AR Ozarks, southeastern
OK, north-central TX, to near DRT. The leading convective/outflow
boundary extended from southeastern AR across northwestern LA and
extreme southeast TX. By 00Z the cold front should reach western
portions of TN/MS and southeastern/south-central LA. The low should
deepen considerably overnight and move across central/northeastern
KY. By 12Z the front should reach eastern TN, the GA/AL border
vicinity, and western FL Panhandle.

A marine/warm front was drawn at 11Z over western FL Panhandle
coastal waters to near the MS/AL coastlines, then inland across
southeastern to northern LA. This boundary, which denoted the
northern rim of the best-modified, richly moist Gulf air mass,
should become gradually more diffuse, and move east-northeastward
across portions of southern/central MS through the afternoon. This
evening and overnight, it should cross southern AL and western FL
Panhandle.

...Lower Mississippi Valley, Gulf Coast States...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to cross the area
through the period, generally from west to east in the form of a
quasi-linear convective system (QLCS), but with some warm-sector
supercells also possible. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes
(possibly strong) are expected, and isolated hail is possible as
well.

As the shortwave perturbation rounds the base of the broader-scale
trough and the surface low strengthens, low-level isallobaric/mass
response will contribute to backed warm-sector flow across the
Central Gulf Coast and Delta regions, in addition to the backing and
low-level vorticity enhancement expected along the warm/marine
front. These factors will contribute to a 50-65-kt LLJ atop
favorably large low-level hodographs (i.e., effective SRH 300-500
J/kg) and a CAPE/shear parameter space ordinarily well within ranges
typically associated with significant tornadoes. Forecast soundings
show a combination of boundary-layer theta-e advection and muted
diurnal heating helping to boost MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg
range near and south of the inland-penetrating marine front.
Strengthening southwesterly mean-wind/deep-shear vectors will spread
over the outlook area today into this evening. The QLCS largely
responsible for the enhanced damaging-wind threat, beneath that
strong flow, may arise from an increasingly organized band of
convection now located over the Gulf -- south of a nearshore outflow
boundary, east of CRP, and southwest of GLS.

A modulating influence, however, may be storm mode. The bulk of
convection should be quasi-linear, with only conditional potential
of warm-sector supercells surviving long enough to become tornadic
in that favorable environment before being overtaken by the MCS.
QLCS tornadoes (which occasionally can become significant also,
though not to the frequency and duration of supercellular ones) also
are possible as the convective band impinges on the high-SRH and
marginally to moderately unstable boundary layer. For now, will
maintain the significant-tornado area with some peripheral
modifications.

...South-central Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly this
afternoon, as diabatic heating of the boundary layer removes MLCINH
beneath very cold air aloft. Hail and gusts approaching severe
limits are expected in the most intense cells.

Even with surface temperatures only in the mid/upper 60s F, modified
forecast soundings show some favorable conditions: -20 to -24 C
500-mb temperatures, lapse rates 7-8 deg C/km from surface-500 mb,
and enough residual low-level moisture to support 500-800 J/kg of
uncapped MLCAPE. Buoyancy also should extend into icing layers
suitable for production of both lightning and at least small hail. Additionally, well-mixed subcloud layers with almost dry-adiabatic
0-3-km lapse rates may enable gusts approaching severe limits. A general-thunder area is being added with this outlook package. If
confidence increases in large hail and severe gusts, severe
probabilities may be added in a succeeding update.

..Edwards.. 04/18/2019

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 181659
SWODY1
SPC AC 181658

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
LA/MS/AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...

CORRECTED FOR OLD CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes (a few significant) and scattered to widespread
damaging winds are possible through tonight across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast States.

...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
Considered an upgrade to a tornado-driven Moderate risk but have
deferred mainly due to uncertainties regarding convective mode and
lack of intense/long-track updraft helicity signal from the HREF.

Two separated clusters/lines are ongoing, one across north-central
to southwest LA and the other just off the mouth of the Sabine River
in the Gulf. This activity should merge into a broader QLCS that
moves east-northeast across the Lower MS Valley into AL through
tonight. Rich boundary-layer moisture sampled by the 12Z Lake
Charles sounding and characterized by upper 60s to lower 70s dew
points will spread north ahead of this activity in conjunction with
an amplifying low-level jet. Surface cyclone near Lake Charles will
deepen as it ejects into the TN Valley through tonight. Moderate insolation/boundary-layer heating is underway downstream of the rich
moisture plume. The combination of these will contribute to a swath
of 750-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid weak mid-level lapse rates, likely
extending as far north as central MS to central AL during the late
afternoon and evening. Strong low/deep-layer shear will be favorable
for embedded bowing and supercell structures, however generally
line-parallel flow may be a limiting factor. Nevertheless, potential
exists for scattered to widespread damaging winds along with
short-track tornadoes (a few of which may be significant). The most
likely region for these hazards to occur is across MS this afternoon
and AL this evening. Whether or not more discrete convection can
become sustained ahead of the QLCS is uncertain. Most CAMs suggest
ahead of the line convection should struggle to intensify along the
leading edge of forcing for ascent. The overall severe risk should
subside some overnight, but at least an isolated wind/tornado threat
should persist into western GA and the eastern FL Panhandle through
early morning.

..Grams/Wendt.. 04/18/2019

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 262002
SWODY1
SPC AC 262000

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER GRAPHIC AND HAIL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will persist into the early evening from the Middle
Atlantic region through eastern North Carolina. Damaging wind is the
main threat, but a few tornadoes remain possible over the Middle
Atlantic region.

...Discussion...

Primary change from previous outlook has been to trim the risk areas
from the west across NC into the Middle Atlantic as line of strong
to severe storms continues east. Otherwise, have also expanded MRGL
risk category farther west into NM where storms developing over the
higher terrain might produce a few downbursts and possibly some
marginally severe hail.

..Dial.. 04/26/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019/

...Mid Atlantic Region...
Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough approaching the Mid
Atlantic region, with large midlevel height falls forecast across
the region this afternoon. Visible imagery shows broken cloud cover
throughout the area, allowing daytime heating and destabilization to
occur. This should result in widespread thunderstorm activity later
today, with the potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

The primary severe threat appears to be associated with a line of
convection currently over eastern WV and western PA. This activity
will intensify by mid-afternoon as it tracks into the warmer and
more unstable air across central VA/PA. Strong westerly flow aloft
and considerable low-level shear will promote bowing segments in the
line capable of damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also
possible along the line. Other storms are expected to form ahead of
the line in a weakly capped environment, also posing a risk of
damaging winds and perhaps tornadoes. Have upgraded to ENH risk to
cover this region for this afternoon. Please refer to MCD #451 for
further details.

...UT/WY/CO/NE...
A fast moving shortwave trough over ID/OR will track into the
northern Great Basin this afternoon, with large scale ascent
spreading across much of UT/WY and eventually the adjacent High
Plains. Model guidance agrees in the development of several
clusters of fast-moving thunderstorms across this region. Forecast
soundings suggest a risk of gusty and locally damaging wind gusts
with the more intense cells.

...NM/TX/KS/CO...
A few thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon off the
higher terrain of southeast CO and northeast NM. These storms will
spread east-southeastward into parts of southwest KS and the OK/TX
Panhandles by early evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and strong
vertical shear would promote the risk of a few strong to severe
storms capable of gusty winds and hail. This threat is expected to
remain isolated.

$$


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