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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0907

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 27, 2018 18:43:09
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 271843
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271842
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0907
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0142 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

    Areas affected...Far Northeast Arkansas...Far Southeast
    Missouri...Far Southern Illinois...Far Southwest Kentucky...and
    Western Tennessee.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 271842Z - 272015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong storms are expected this afternoon with damaging
    winds as the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Clear skies has led to robust surface heating across
    much of the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Temperatures have risen into the
    low 90s with mid to upper 70s dewpoints. This has yielded a very
    unstable environment with SBCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg. Modifying the
    12Z LZK RAOB for current surface conditions shows the capping
    inversion has now eroded. This likely explains the renewed storm
    development in northwest Tennessee over the past hour. Additional
    storms are possible along and ahead of the remnants of the morning
    convection currently in southeast Missouri. Westerly winds around 30
    knots at 1 km above the surface via the KHPX and KOHX VWP may
    support a wind damage threat, but the measured 25 to 30 knots of 0
    to 6 km shear will limit the overall severe threat despite robust
    instability. Convective trends will be monitored through the
    afternoon to assess the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

    ..Bentley.. 06/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 37248916 37228851 37178807 36998776 36638731 36108707
    35598690 35288692 35108711 35098806 35088919 35098999
    35139035 35379087 35979118 36259112 36599083 37248916



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