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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0904

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 27, 2018 09:19:04
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 270919
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270918
    SDZ000-271045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0904
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0418 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

    Areas affected...central and southeast South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227...

    Valid 270918Z - 271045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorm cluster is currently moving through
    central South Dakota with a history of producing very large hail.
    This storm should continue through the early morning and move out of
    WW227 later this morning. This will likely require a new watch
    across portions of southeast South Dakota.

    DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorm cluster centered over Hughes
    County is moving continues to move southeast along the periphery of
    the higher instability axis. Although cloud tops appear to have
    stopped cooling, MESH imagery suggests the thunderstorm cluster has
    been capable of producing hail hail in excess of 2.5" for much of
    the last few hours. This radar-derived hail-size estimate was
    corroborated by a 2.5" hail report around 730Z.

    The environment ahead of this thunderstorm remains conducive for
    thunderstorm maintenance. Deep-layer shear remains at or above 50
    knots and most-unstable CAPE along and ahead of the storm is at or
    above 2000 J/kg. Given persistent warm-air advection ahead of the
    storm, the ongoing organization of the thunderstorm cluster, and a
    favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, expectation is
    that the storm will move out of WW227 in the next 1-2 hours. A new
    watch downstream of WW227 appears likely warranted.

    ..Marsh.. 06/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44260099 45099977 43779710 43089836 44260099



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