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ACUS11 KWNS 151918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151917
SCZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...central South Carolina through western North
Carolina and southwest Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...

Valid 151917Z - 152045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes will persist
across the remainder of tornado watch 52 including western North
Carolina through central South Carolina next hour or so. Threat will
shift east into tornado watch 53 by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Line of storms from southwest VA through western NC and
central SC is moving east at generally 15-20 kt. The portion of the
line over south Carolina has accelerated. Individual elements and
bowing segments within the line are moving more rapidly northeast
near 50 kt. The downstream boundary layer is warm and moist with
dewpoints from near 60 F near the VA/NC border to mid and upper 60s
farther south into the Carolinas. Weak mid-level lapse rates
continue to limit buoyancy with MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg. Despite
the marginal mid-level thermodynamic environment, strong forcing
accompanying a northeast-ejecting upper trough and its intensifying
low level jet as well as embedded MCVs will promote renewed
development along the advancing gust front/squall line. Moreover the
kinematic environment will remain favorable for embedded bowing
segments and mesovortices through the afternoon.

..Dial.. 04/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 32578056 33858046 35288070 36568047 36438011 35088012
32897979 32578056



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ACUS11 KWNS 070010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070009
ALZ000-MSZ000-070145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Mississippi...western into
central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 070009Z - 070145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few more damaging wind gusts remain possible with a
bowing complex near the MS/AL border, before weakening with the
onset of nocturnal stabilization.

DISCUSSION...An east-northeast propagating MCS, currently located
along the MS/AL border, continues to produce wind damage within an
ambient environment characterized by marginal deep-layer and
low-level shear, but with moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2000
J/kg). Surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s within close proximity
to the bowing complex. However, dewpoints (along with instability)
are lower in central/north-central Alabama, where overall shear and
deep-layer ascent are even weaker compared to points farther west.

The MCS is expected to undergo gradual weakening over the next few
hours, with damaging wind gusts remaining a concern for the next
hour or two, before nocturnal cooling both weakens convection and
dampens the downward transport of higher momentum air via a surface stratified/stable layer.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33698913 34138892 34338827 34428722 34438644 34378607
34128605 33638614 33068620 32608662 32368721 32418815
32508888 32728920 33298905 33698913



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