1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0806

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, June 20, 2018 20:41:09
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1529527272-49124-2
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 202041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202040
    ORZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-202245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0806
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

    Areas affected...Central and Eastern Oregon

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 202040Z - 202245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop across central/eastern
    Oregon into the evening as an upper-level shortwave moves into the
    region. Hail and strong wind gusts are the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are developing along and east of the Cascades as
    daytime heating augments orographic forcing and as ascent associated
    with a progressive shortwave trough overspreads the region. Minimal
    moisture (mean mixing ratios <10 g/kg; surface dewpoints in the 40s
    to low 50s) may limit updraft intensity as dry air is entrained.
    Increasing flow aloft will help enhance shear (forecast effective
    bulk shear of 30-45 knots) especially across southern/eastern Oregon
    late this afternoon and into the evening.

    Forecast RAP soundings show inverted-V signatures with steep lapse
    rates (8+ C/km), high LCLs (2000+ m AGL), and DCAPE (1000+ J/kg)
    indicating the potential for strong wind gusts. Hail is also
    possible, but severe hail coverage should remain limited given the
    modest buoyancy (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg). Latest HRRR forecasts have
    been consistent in showing the potential for a couple of
    thunderstorms exhibiting transient supercell characteristics
    including UH tracks across southern/eastern Oregon after 22z.
    However, severe thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain
    isolated.

    ..Nauslar/Dial.. 06/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...PQR...

    LAT...LON 41392251 42252250 43302248 44262248 44942245 45062155
    45222017 45391903 45491811 45471762 44991753 44441753
    43111747 42481751 42101810 41841919 41672022 41522102
    41412160 41392251



    ------------=_1529527272-49124-2
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1529527272-49124-2--

    --- SBBSecho 3.04-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)